Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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313 FXUS63 KABR 040912 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 412 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions expected today and Sunday. Southeast to south winds begin to increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a Rocky Mountains low. - A much larger system looks to affect the region on Monday, with widespread moderate rainfall. The threat for severe weather still appears low at this time (higher across NE/KS/OK), but we will continue to monitor trends. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 412 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure builds into the region this morning bringing dry conditions. However, an upper trough is slow to depart so max Ts are expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10 degrees. Weak upper ridging builds in tonight. High pressure exits to the east on Sunday leaving a tightening pressure gradient between the high and a Rocky Mountains low. Winds increase out of the southeast to south Sunday afternoon with gusts across central SD up to 50 mph. Will likely need to hoist a wind advisory for some locations in the forecast area as we get closer to the onset. The upper ridge and good mixing will push temperatures up around 70 degrees on Sunday, as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 412 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Sunday night we continue to see an upper level ridge over the area. This will continue into Monday morning. However, Monday afternoon, an upper level low starts to move into the region. This will stay in place through the day Saturday. This will bring a widespread chances of rain to the region through the day Thursday. Monday looks to have the highest rain totals for the long term, along with a chance for some storms. Consistent with what we saw yesterday, NAEFS is still showing PWAT values in the 97.5 percentile, starting west river and then spreading east across the rest of northeast SD through the day. For QPF, the NBM is still showing 50 to 65 percent probabilities for more than a half an inch in 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. Probabilities of more than an inch in 24 hours are still 30 percent or less. Although rain totals may exceed expectations under storms. While modles aren`t showing a whole lot of CAPE (100-400 J/kg across the James valley, less elsewhere), Bulk shear values are between 35 and 50 kts across the region. This will sway the threat away from the hail side of things and more towards a wind threat, especially since we are already expecting stronger wind gusts. The Canadian model tries to bring back a chance for some storms on Wednesday, but other models disagree at the moment. PoPs start to decrease across the area Thursday evening. Speaking of winds, Sunday night into Tuesday morning is expected to be quite windy with gusts of over 40 mph possible. Sunday night, winds are fueled by a LLJ and Monday night, winds looks to be enhanced by strong CAA coming in from the west.Winds should start to die down Tuesday during the day. Temperatures in the long term still look to be right around to 10 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF valid period at KPIR, KMBG and KABR. KATY could see a couple of hours of MVFR cigs and/or MVFR/IFR visbies in rain between now and 12Z. Beyond that, KATY should see prevailing conditions become VFR prior to 18Z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Wise