Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191750 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1250 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

It has become breezy/windy across the cwa this morning as the
mixing layer has deepened and the surface pressure gradient has
tightened up. Northeast winds were gusting up to 35 to 40 mph.
Also, satellite and surface obs were showing the low clouds
pushing quickly south this morning along with cirrus spreading in
from the nebraska convection. Thus, made some adjustments to the


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Canadian high pressure is to the north with a stratus layer and
mixed mid/high clouds over the area. Additionally have seen the
occasional sprinkle here at the office. An upper low sits just to
the southwest of the region as well. This feature will move into
the central plains but is just far enough south that it appears
any moisture associated with it will stay to the south of the CWA.
So with a dry forecast the main concerns are clouds and
temperatures. The back edge of stratus is around the I94 corridor
so the clearing line will move into the CWA around daybreak and
most of the low clouds will have cleared by mid day all the way
south to Pierre. The mid/high clouds are also expected to shift
away from the area. So temperatures will warm, although CAA will
stymie this a bit, with mixing only getting us to around 60.
Overnight the high pressure system moves along the ND/SD state
line, with ideal radiational conditions. Given we get a good
amount of daytime heating warming our soils, I don`t think a frost
is in the works for the area with dewpoints around the mid 30s -
but its still something to watch, particularly for the northern
tier of counties from Corson to Brown. Farther east, there may be
enough gradient/CAA to keep light winds going.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Canadian high pressure will continue to keep the area cool and dry
on Sunday. Moisture begins to move back in on Tuesday as low
pressure rolls off the Rockies and weak southerly return flow sets
up west of the high. Upper ridging will draw warmer air back into
the region, as well. By Tuesday evening, instability will be
sufficient for shower and thunderstorm development. Weak sfc low
pressure will remain over the Dakotas through the end of the week.
Coupled with an upper trough moving through on Friday, precip
chances will continue through the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

VFR conditions expected at all sites through this forecast period.
The only holdout is at KATY where a brief period of MVFR cigs will
be possible for the first couple hours before becoming VFR. Gusty
N to NE winds should remain consistent through sunset tonight
before diminishing.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Vipond is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.