Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191724 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 936 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Made a few modifications to the forecast this morning. After
receiving a couple 3-4 inch snowfall amounts, have upped
QPF/SnowAmt grids a tad just east of Missouri valley given recent
radar trends. Latest CAMS and new NAM12 suggest upper trof
approaches late this morning and afternoon, thus providing more
emphasis to shove snow band east into the James valley.
Temperatures are okay for now and won`t climb much today.

UPDATE Issued at 707 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

12z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A vigorous upper level low pressure system currently over northern
Oklahoma, along with a weak system over southern Alberta, will bring
light precipitation to the region. Light snow has been ongoing west
of the Missouri Valley this morning with webcams supporting 1-2
inches so far. An additional inch or two could be possible before
the system begins to push eastward today. While upper level lift is
not great, the slow nature of this system could produce two to three
inches of snow for east SD and western MN. Surface temps around
freezing could limit the snowfall amounts.

Precipitation will gradually diminish from west to east late this
afternoon through tonight. However a weak upper level trough will
cross the region on Tuesday with additional light pcpn possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

The models show a weak short wave trough leaving the region to the
east on Tuesday night with some residual chances of rain/snow for
this time. Otherwise, the models show 50h ridging building into the
region from the west for Wednesday and Thursday bringing a short
period of time of dry conditions. The models then still show a large
low pressure trough moving into the western U.S. The models have
been consistent with kicking an initial significant short wave trough
that will move northeast across our region Thursday night into
Friday night. Still have in very good chances of rain/snow with this
system. The models were now less impressive with the weekend system.
This time around the models show a short wave trough kicking out of
the western trough and farther north across the Northern Plains for
Saturday and Sunday. The models have varied on this several times.
This solution would be warmer for us along with lesser chances of
rain/snow which is what is in the forecast this time around. Highs
through the period are expected to be near to around 5 degrees below
normal mostly in the 40s and lower 50s across the cwa.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

IFR/MVFR conditions will gradually spread across the entire region
this afternoon, and then should linger into Tuesday. Most of the
accumulating snow over the area will shift from west to east
through tonight, and then end at KABR/KATY late tonight.




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