Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171730 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 1031 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Due to clouds and lingering fog this morning, decided to knock
back temps a notch to the west of the James valley. Otherwise
forecast looks mostly on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Surface low pressure continues to pull away from the region this
morning, leaving behind cloudy skies and some fog. With limited
mixing winds today, went pessimistic and keep clouds through most of
the afternoon. High temperatures will depend on when skies clear.
Far northeastern SD and western MN should see the most sun today
with highs reaching the lower 40s. Lowered temps a few degrees in
central SD due to yesderday`s moderate to heavy snow.

With light winds tonight, along with added low level moisture from
snowmelt, patchy to areas of fog will be possible. Confidence is not
high enough to mention fog at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The long term models agree well through most of the period and then
diverge quite a bit just outside of this forecast period. The models
show a strong low pressure trough over the southwest U.S. along with
a weak closed upper level low pressure area in southern Canada to
begin the period. The southwest low pressure trough will move east
and close off as it moves across the Central Plains through Monday.
We will receive some influence from this system along with the weak
upper low off to our northwest in southern Canada. This low in
Canada will open up and slowly drop southeast across our region
through Tuesday night. As a result, the models continue to show good
chances of rain/snow with this system mainly from Sunday night
through Tuesday night. With weak lift, dont expect big amounts of
rain or snow with this system. After this low pressure trough moves
through, the models show upper level ridging building over our
region from the west as a large low pressure trough moves into the
western U.S.

The surface pressure pattern across the region remains rather weak
through at least Wednesday night and thus not much for winds. For
Thursday and Friday, southeast winds take hold and should become
breezy/windy with good pressure falls from the large upper level
trough moving in from the west. It does look like we will have quite
a bit of cloud cover from Sunday through Wednesday. Temperatures
should be below normal for the long term. With the cloud cover and
chances of precipitation, mid 30s to the lower 40s are expected
through Wednesday. With waa, Thursday and Friday look to be a little
warmer in the 40s and lower 50s. Lift from a short wave trough
moving across the region will bring good chances of rain/snow on
Thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A couple areas of IFR/MVFR cigs continues across the area early
this afternoon, with only slight degradation in coverage. Some
thinning of the clouds is possible, but more clouds and fog is
expected overnight tonight. So most terminals should see at least
MVFR fog and MVFR/IFR cigs late tonight.




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