Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241724 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Updated and bumped up PoPs a bit given current 88d returns as well
as latest CAM progs. Temperatures probably okay as long as we get
at least a bit of sun this afternoon/early evening. Also bumped up
winds as pressure bubble is making them a bit gusty, particularly
over the Missouri River valley.

UPDATE Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An upper level low pressure area over central SD early this morning
will drop slowly south southeast through the evening hours. Numerous
showers were shown early this morning on radar and surface obs. Most
of the cwa has likely/definite pops through the morning hours
trending off through the afternoon/early evening as the system moves
south. The issue will be how far northeast will the rain showers
make it into far northeast SD/west central MN as there will be less
lift along with drier low level air. Suspect there will be locations
across the far east that will not receive any or only trace amounts
where the pops are much less. Also, expect breezy/windy northeast
winds across central SD for a time this morning close to the surface
low pressure area. Otherwise, cloudy skies today will decrease
through the night as surface high pressure settles over the region
from the northwest and winds go light.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A few "targets of opportunity" in the extended forecast this
morning. First was to raise high temps on Wednesday above
SuperBlend. Good setup for warming with southwest winds, mild
925/850 mb temps, and a dry atmosphere. Several guidance members are
warmer than SuperBlend, so sided more towards the warmer end of
values. Also raised temps Friday through Monday as models agree
pretty well on a mild pattern setting up, with SuperBlend likely too
cool. Next change to the forecast was to raise wind speeds on
Thursday, more towards CONSMOS values. Fairly potent front moving
through the area between 06Z and 12Z Thursday, with gusty north
winds in its wake. Leaned towards higher end guidance for winds,
which included CONSMOS.

Otherwise, no major changes to the extended, which looks mostly dry
early on. Temps look rather mild overall, with the one brief setback
on Thursday in the post-frontal cooler air mass. The weekend looks
rather warm if models continue to hold onto this pattern. Could be
talking about 80 degrees possibly by the time we get to Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

An area of rain will gradually moves southeast and out of the area
this afternoon. Any IFR/MVFR cigs associated with that system will
also move off to the southeast. VFR conditions are expected
region-wide tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK


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