Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201750 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1250 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

The current forecast for today looks good overall. No changes
planned at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 651 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

With temperatures nosing up thanks to sunshine, and most
locations above 35, went ahead and cancelled the frost advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

High clouds and less than calm winds responsible for keeping
temperatures in the 40s most of the night, though an isolated spot
or two has dipped into the upper 30s. Will leave headline in place
for now. Winds become easterly and weaker today, and with a dry
airmass in place temperatures should warm to around 70. The upper
low that continues to weaken and wobble just to the south of our
area will drift northeast and BUFKIT profiles suggest moisture in
a layer only 3-4kft develops over the CWA, mainly focused across
southeast counties. CAMS suggest some precipitation with this
feature but give the depth and little lift, doubt it will be more
than sprinkles. Increased cloud cover will keep temperatures a
little warmer tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

The period opens with the Dakotas sandwiched between a departing
high and a lee side low. As southerly return flow increases,
moisture will increase across the region. Coupled with warm temps in
the 80s by Tuesday under a building upper ridge, there will be
sufficient instability to generate some showers and thunderstorms by
Tuesday evening. Persistent weak sfc low pressure and shortwave
activity under the ridge will keep showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through the end of the work week. Additional energy will be
added on Thursday night as a sfc front moves through with an upper
trough. Conditions are expected to dry out but remain warm next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals except at
KATY through this forecast period. An easterly breeze should
persist through late afternoon, especially at KABR and KATY,
before relaxing this evening. A period of MVFR cigs will be
possible at KATY beginning late tonight and persist through
Monday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Vipond


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