Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
349 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A vigorous upper level low pressure system currently over northern
Oklahoma, along with a weak system over southern Alberta, will bring
light precipitation to the region. Light snow has been ongoing west
of the Missouri Valley this morning with webcams supporting 1-2
inches so far. An additional inch or two could be possible before
the system begins to push eastward today. While upper level lift is
not great, the slow nature of this system could produce two to three
inches of snow for east SD and western MN. Surface temps around
freezing could limit the snowfall amounts.

Precipitation will gradually diminish from west to east late this
afternoon through tonight. However a weak upper level trough will
cross the region on Tuesday with additional light pcpn possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

The models show a weak short wave trough leaving the region to the
east on Tuesday night with some residual chances of rain/snow for
this time. Otherwise, the models show 50h ridging building into the
region from the west for Wednesday and Thursday bringing a short
period of time of dry conditions. The models then still show a large
low pressure trough moving into the western U.S. The models have
been consistent with kicking an initial significant short wave trough
that will move northeast across our region Thursday night into
Friday night. Still have in very good chances of rain/snow with this
system. The models were now less impressive with the weekend system.
This time around the models show a short wave trough kicking out of
the western trough and farther north across the Northern Plains for
Saturday and Sunday. The models have varied on this several times.
This solution would be warmer for us along with lesser chances of
rain/snow which is what is in the forecast this time around. Highs
through the period are expected to be near to around 5 degrees below
normal mostly in the 40s and lower 50s across the cwa.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

IFR/MVFR cigs will remain in place over the CWA through the TAF
period. Precipitation will spread from west to east across the area
overnight and  through the day Monday. The precipitation will vary
from snow to rain depending on temperatures, with vsbys likely
falling into the MVFR category at times.




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