Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180528 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Based on RAP/HRRR trends, a mostly stationary band of precip will
develop to the west. The result being the highest precip will
occur in the western and southwestern CWA. Thus have removed
counties from the southeastern CWA from the winter weather
advisory and added the counties in the west and southwest. Total
snowfall amounts will range from 1-3 inches with locally higher
amounts. Whoever will see the higher amounts will see a goodly
amount of snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Starting to see the effects of the strong lift in advance of the
upper level low pressure trough out to our west with increasing
clouds along with some radar returns. This is the result of the
strong upper divergence which is shown on the SPC mesoanalysis page.
As the negatively tilted trough moves into the region and closes
off to our south, expect widespread rain and snow to develop out
west into the evening and spread east by morning. The models again
show disagreement in the amounts and the extent of the qpf with
this system. The nam and Canadian are more robust mainly across
the east on Wednesday while the EC and GFS had less qpf. Air
temperatures, ground temperatures, snowfall rates, along with the
precipitation occurring on a mid April day will affect the
snowfall accumulations. Some of the snow may melt as it hits the
ground. The consensus was for lower qpf and thus snowfall amounts
for our region with mainly 1 to 3 inches. The least amounts will
occur along the North Dakota border in northeast South Dakota with
the highest amounts in the Watertown area. Therefore, let the
winter weather advisory remain in effect. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 30s east to the around 45 far west on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Building high pressure will lead to dry weather until potentially
Friday when precipitation my extend into the CWA as an area of low
pressure passes to our south. Generally low pops however as not all
models agree on the northward extent. Another question is the amount
of cold air...have light snow/rain mix straddling the start and end
times of precipitation for both Friday morning and Saturday morning,
but the profile appears warm enough where this should largely be a
light rain event. We have another chance of moisture early next week
as an active pattern continues.

Regarding temperatures, the area should stay below average for the
rest of the week. Average highs are in the upper 50s this time of
year, for perspective, and that`s where models trend for the weekend
before cooling back off to start the next work-week. Lessening snow
cover will help air temps realize this potential. Looking further
ahead, the Climate Prediction Center has the area in above average
chances for above average temperatures for the first time in a while
in the 8-14 day outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

An upper level trough will enhance rain and snow chances across
portions of central/north central South Dakota. KPIR/KMBG stand the
highest probability of seeing some precipitation between now and 18Z
Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions should develop at KPIR before 12Z
Wednesday. KMBG could be down into some sub-VFR conditions, as well,
between now and 18Z. KABR/KATY could end up staying VFR for the
entire TAF valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon
     for SDZ003-015-016-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...Wise


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