674
FXAK69 PAFG 052138
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 PM AKDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances moving across the mainland
over the next several days will support rain and snow showers
south of the Brooks Range and snow north of the Brooks Range.
Strong northeast winds persist through Monday from Cape Lisburne
through the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for the Yukon River at Circle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level Analysis...Broad troughing over the west coast that
will become a closed upper low over the Seward Penn Monday Morning
then retrograde southwest over the Bering on Tuesday. Another low
in the Gulf of ALaska will be a player for showers over the
Interior as shortwaves spin up from the southeast Monday and
Tuesday. The low over the Bering will drift south on Wednesday and
southerly flow will re-establish over the Interior late Wed and
Thursday. Gusty gap winds are possible on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A series of upper level disturbances will support periods of snow
across the North Slope and Brooks Range through mid week. Snow
amounts will be light. Over the northwest Arctic Coast northeast
winds of 30 to 40 mph will persist through Monday from Point Lay
west, with lighter winds anticipated Tuesday. Elsewhere along the
coast northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected through Monday,
diminishing Monday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong pressure gradient persists from Point Hope through the
Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island today, supporting northwest
winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Further south,
northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph expected along the coast.
Winds will remain strong through Monday then diminish some
Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers are possible under
the trough through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
North to northeast winds increase into the 10 to 20 mph range
this afternoon and evening, with the strongest winds occurring in
the White Mountains and Interior summits. An upper level
disturbance pushing northwest out of the Yukon this evening and
Monday will bring another round of showers across the Interior,
with a rain/snow mix possible during the early morning hours
Monday then becoming all rain by late morning. Little to no
accumulations expected. Another shortwave will lift northwest out
of the Yukon on Tuesday and bring showers to the Eastern Interior.
Temperatures on the cool side Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 40s and low 50s on Tuesday then warming near 60 above on
Wednesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Upper level troughing over the Bering
Sea remains the dominant player through the end of the work week,
while ridging builds north into British Columbia. This set up
supports scattered showers across northern Alaska. Temperatures
slowly trend upwards for the latter half of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A series of upper level disturbances will
lift northwest across the Interior through Tuesday supporting
scattered to numurous showers each day. Temperatures trend
downwards today and Monday before warming up again on Wednesday.
Minimum relative humidity values largely remain above 25 percent
through Tuesday. North to northeast winds increase into the 10 to
20 mph range this afternoon from the Yukon Flats south to the
White Mountains, Fortymile Country and Middle Tanana Valley, with
the strongest winds occurring in the White Mountains and Interior
summits. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range
passes Monday afternoon continuing into Wednesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...As of mid-day Sunday, not much change has been
reported and the Yukon River breakup front is roughly 30 miles
upstream of Circle, near Coal Creek. There is a 20 mile run of
dense ice above the breakup front. Residents of Circle should be
aware that the breakup front is approaching. No overbank flooding
has been reported yet. However as the breakup front moves
downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release,
leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or
moderate flooding.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-810-811-816-850-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$