070
FXUS61 KAKQ 061843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
243 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot
and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe
weather, especially mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Monday...

Late this morning, a frontal boundary was located well NW of the
CWA. Very mild and humid conditions under a mostly cloudy or
cloudy sky were prevailing across the region. Temps were ranging
from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Latest radar showed sctd showers
moving off the coast.

Strong shortwave energy will move through the area later this
aftn through this evening, leading to formation of showers and
tstms. Continued SSW flow at the sfc will result in warmer high
temps across the entire region, and plentiful low level moisture.
Despite partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions, temps will
rise into the lower 80s along and E of I-95, and upper 70s to
the W and on the Eastern Shore, with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s. The latest CAMS show showers and tstms moving into
wrn portions of the area between 3-6 pm, then moving ewrd into
ern portions of the region between 6-10 pm.

Given the moisture profile (PWATs 1.5"-2.0"), heavy rain will
be a good bet in heavier showers or storms. This, combined with
portions of the area receiving 1-2" of rain in the last couple
of days, has justified placement of a marginal ERO over most of
VA (W of the Bay) and inland NE NC. There will be no short
supply of instability this aftn into this evening, with mean
HREF MLCAPE indicating widespread 1000-1500 J/Kg. Thus, a few
storms may become strong to severe. However, a lack of shear and
meager mid-level lapse rates will limit the threat to isolated
damaging winds. The area with the best chance for stronger
storms will be in the SE and the peninsulas where instability
will be higher and low-level lapse rates look to approach 8.5
C/km. Showers/storms will taper off or end after midnight
tonight, lingering the longest over the Eastern Shore. Mild
again tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues through the mid-week period with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms

- Will likely have daily chances for strong to severe storms Tues-
Thurs

Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee
trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tues/Wed. These
will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances
in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warm conditions are
expected with highs generally in the low-mid 80s on Tues and upper
80s to around 90 on Wed. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure
presence of instability. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the
region on Tues, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does
look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The
SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tues. The
flow aloft then turns back to the SW Wed and strengthens, which will
allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk
on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thurs as flow
aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front,
(quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While
there is still some uncertainty, Thurs has the potential for the
highest coverage of severe storms this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

A cold front and upper trough will push across the region Fri
through Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms.
Temps will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid-upper 70s. The
weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight
chance of afternoon showers in the forecast for now. Dry air also
means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Temps
will be much cooler this weekend. Highs will be in the low 70s Sat
and low-mid 70s on Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

MVFR to VFR CIGs were prevailing at the TAF sites this aftn,
with VCSH mentioned in all TAF sites expect SBY until 20-21z.
Sctd showers and tstms will affect all TAF sites from later this
aftn through this evening. Heavy rain may impact VSBYs at times,
with mainly VFR or MVFR CIGs. Winds will be mainly SSW 5-10 kt
this aftn into Tue aftn, with a few higher gusts possible in any
stronger storms through this evening. CIGs will become lower
MVFR or IFR tonight into Tue morning, then improve to mainly VFR
by Tue aftn.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Tue
night through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Sfc high pressure (~1025mb) is centered well off the coast of
New England/ SE of Nova Scotia early this morning with
yesterday`s frontal boundary now N of the local waters. The
wind is from the S at 10-15 kt, with seas are ~3 ft, and waves
1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay. Overall, a summerlike pattern will
prevail through Wed, with a SSE to SW wind averaging ~10 kt
with gusts less than 20 kt so outside of any tstms, conditions
will be sub- SCA. SW winds look to increase a bit Thursday in
advance of an approaching cold front, and could reach SCA by
Friday/Friday night as winds turn NW behind the front as some
CAA spreads over the region. The models still differ quite a bit
with timing and the position/evolution of the storm track Fri
into Sat so the forecast remains uncertain during this period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 630 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- All Coastal Flood Advisories have now ended.


SSE winds and a higher astronomical tide last evening/early
this morning has allowed low-end minor flooding to be realized
at Lewisetta, Crisfield, Bishop`s Head, and Cambridge. As for
currents at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay over the next 24
hrs, it will generally be neutral or slightly favoring ebbing
per CBOFS output and latest obs. As such, expect tidal
departures to drop off by a few tenths of a foot across the
mid/upper Bay with no additional flooding later today (aside
from localized nuisance flooding). Some nuisance to localized
low- end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will still be possible
with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning
and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high
tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the
way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay (mainly
due to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week as
we approach the new moon phase).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/TMG
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LKB/JKP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ