297
FXUS61 KAKQ 110011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
811 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will bring another round of showers and
storms this afternoon into tonight. A chance for showers
continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend. Dry and
warmer weather to start next week before another round of
showers and storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure was located off the NC coast this evening with an
upper level trough slowly pivoting through the local area. With
the loss of diurnal instability, thunderstorms have ended with
scattered showers lingering across much of the area. Expect this
activity to gradually taper off as it moves E over the next
several hours. Temps as of 7:50 PM ranged from the low-mid 50s N
to the lower 60s S.

Latest observations from the Space Prediction Center show that
we are currently in a G5 geomagnetic storm (Kp 9). This is the
strongest geomagnetic storm since October 2003! It is the
strongest level of geomagnetic storm and (if clear skies allow)
this level of storm can actually be seen across VA/MD/NC and
potentially farther S! Now for the bad news...given the upper
level trough overhead, widespread cloud cover looks to stick
around through the night across essentially the whole CWA. The
best chance for some partial clearing tonight is across far SW
portions of the local area. The lowest chance for clearing is
across central and eastern portions of the FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230pm EDT Friday...

Much of Saturday into early afternoon should stay dry as a
weak upper disturbance currently over the western Great Lakes
approaches the area. Models are trending slightly slower with
the precipitation, with the best chances for rain across the far
NW starting late Sat afternoon, then spreading east during the
evening. Best chances will be across the northern half of the
forecast area due to the best energy staying well north of the
region. The upper low and associated surface reflection will be
slow to move out on Sunday, with wrap around showers possible
across mainly eastern Virginia and the lower MD eastern shore.
Models are not terribly aggressive with precipitation on
Sunday, so many places will likely be dry. Trough exits offshore
by Sunday evening with dry weather expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Overall, the extended will be seasonable although there will be rain
chances throughout the week. Monday will be the only day of the week
with no chances for rain with ridging aloft and at the surface. Rain
chances increase for Tuesday and especially on Wednesday as the
closed low currently over the SW states moves east and impacts
the region. Does not look like heavy rainfall as there will not
be an opportunity to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture, but most
areas should see a quarter to a half an inch of rain. Weak
ridging builds in on Thursday which may allow for a dry day.
Will hold onto 20 PoPs in case of an afternoon/evening shower or
storm. Another better chance for rain on Friday as the
consensus LREF suggest another southern stream wave moving into
the area from the west.

Temperatures will be seasonable for this time of year. Due to the
general zonal flow across the area, am not expecting significant day
to day changes in the temps next week. Highs mostly in the mid 70s
to lower 80s. Lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. &&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure over central Virginia will move east and offshore
tonight. This will allow the lower clouds over northern VA and the
MD eastern shore to move southward overnight. Will bring all sites
to MVFR late this afternoon into this evening as the boundary moves
southward. Showers may impact RIC, PHF and ORF late this afternoon
into this evening, while thunderstorms are possible at or near ECG
after 21z. VFR conditions expected on Saturday. North to northeast
winds expected through the period (except initially westerly at ECG
late this afternoon).

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR most of Saturday, but another chance
for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry conditions return
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure off the NC coast will move out to sea overnight
while an upper level trough moves pivots through the area. As a
result, scattered showers (and isolated storms in S portions of
NE NC) will continue to be possible for the next few hours
before gradually tapering off from W to E. Some hi-res CAMs show
the potential for some light showers lingering near ORF/ECG late
tonight into Sat morning, but confidence is too low to reflect
in the tafs. BKN/OVC conditions this evening (MVFR CIGs inland
and MVFR/IFR CIGs along the coast) gradually become SCT/BKN late
tonight before improving Sat afternoon. ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY may
bounce around between IFR/MVFR CIGs (800-1000 ft) over the next
few hours before they improve to MVFR. CIGs improve to VFR by
Sat afternoon. Winds remain generally N/NNE 5-10 kt tonight
(10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over the next few hours), becoming
variable ~5-7 kt Sat. Another cold front brings the chance for
scattered showers (and perhaps an isolated storm) late Sat
afternoon into early Sat night.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible
Sun across NE portions of the FA (including SBY). Dry conditions
return Monday. Unsettled weather returns Tue-Wed as another low
pressure system approaches the FA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of Bay and lower
 James River and Atlantic Ocean through Saturday morning-
 afternoon.

-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions return by Saturday
afternoon/evening, and are expected to persist through at least
Monday.

The front has pushed south into NC and behind it, winds have
turned to the NE and are generally 15-20 kt with some gusts to
25 kt across all water northern waters. WInds have been
preforming well and in line with the ARW and HRRR with decent
CAA and water temps in the 60s to near 70F in many areas mixing
the wind. Expect N-NNE winds to remain around 20kt (with
frequent 25kt gusts) through much of the night. A few 30kt gusts
are possible. The SCAs run through Sat AM- Sat aftn (ending
across the nrn waters earliest/srn waters latest). Seas build to
~6ft across all ocean zones tonight, with 3-4ft waves on the
bay. Winds quickly diminish to ~10kt by early Sat aftn as the
pressure gradient relaxes as the low moves well offshore. Seas
should quickly fall below 5ft by mid to late aftn.

A secondary front tracks across the coast later Saturday
aftn/evening. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and
then shifts to NW late Saturday night/early Sunday. The current
forecast is sub-SCA, although some guidance suggests low-end SCA
conditions are possible over the Ches Bay. High pressure builds over
the coast later Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system and
weak cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 320 PM EDT Friday...

-Key Messages:

-A Coastal Flood Statement has been added for the bay side of
 the MD Eastern Shore for the high tide late tonight/early
 tomorrow morning.

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for almost all of
 the area bordering the Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and
 tidal rivers for tonight`s high tide.

-Minor tidal flooding (inundation of ~1 foot above ground level
 in vulnerable areas) is expected during high tide tonight into
 early Saturday.

An increasing NE then N wind tonight into early Saturday along with
elevated astronomical tides will bring a round of widespread minor
tidal flooding across the area. Water levels are expected to crest a
few tenths of a foot above minor flood thresholds in areas adjacent
to the Ches Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and tidal rivers during tonight`s
high tide cycle. Levels at Oyster may crest right at the moderate
flood threshold for that site. Coastal Flood Advisories still in
effect for all areas except the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore. A Coastal Flood Statement has been added for the bay side
of the MD Eastern Shore for the high tide late tonight due to
expected near-minor flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ076-078-085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ084-086-
     095-097-098-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ089-090-
     093-096-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/MRD
NEAR TERM...RMM/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AM/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...