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000
FXUS61 KALY 150448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1248 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild temperatures with cloudy skies and patchy fog
overnight. An upper-level trough will result in some isolated
to widely scattered showers on Monday, mainly north of
Interstate 90. High pressure will bring dry and milder weather
on Tuesday and Wednesday with unsettled weather returning later
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 1245 AM EDT, in the wake of today`s showers,
areas of dense fog have formed as breaks in the clouds
developed. Expect areas of dense fog to persist through
daybreak. Will initially address this with an SPS, however if
areal extent of dense fog continues to expand, may need to issue
a dense fog advisory for at least portions of eastern NY/western
New England.

Otherwise, temps have cooled more rapidly than guidance
suggests, with mid/upper 30s across the southern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley, and generally lower/mid
40s elsewhere. Given moist boundary layer, expect temps to drop
only another few degrees for most areas as dense fog forms. This
will produce lows in the lower/mid 30s across portions of the
southern Adirondacks, and generally mid 30s to lower/mid 40s
elsewhere.

PREVIOUS [1118 AM EDT]...As of 11PM EDT...Rain showers have
finally exited to our south. Main forecast challenge for tonight
will be cloud and fog coverage. A layer of mid-level clouds
associated with convection over PA has overspread the majority
of the region tonight but once these clouds exit by around
Midnight, patchy fog and/or low ceilings can easily develop
given low dew point depression and remain in place through early
Monday morning. Some spots including Albany and Glens Falls
Airport have already started reporting low stratus and
intermittent fog. This trend will likely continue overnight. We
therefore increased cloud coverage and valley fog overnight.
Temperatures should struggle to cool much overnight given
fog/low stratus so bumped up overnight lows as well to show many
only dropping into the 40s (30s higher terrain of the southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens).

Previous discussion...Mainly just rain showers have occurred
this afternoon with a few rumbles in the mid-Hudson Valley where
some weak elevated instability was able to sneak northward.
Given that most of the region has been worked over from
stratiform rain showers, the severe weather potential has
shifted southward into PA. Even chances for thunderstorms has
decreased as the best instability remains to our south. However,
the SPC mesoscale analysis shows some limited elevated
instability still in the Southern Tier and Catskills so we
continued to mention slight chance of thunder in the forecast
mainly south of I-90 through about 8-9PM tonight. Otherwise,
just plain rain showers ongoing mainly from the Mohawk Valley,
Capital District and southern VT southward this evening with
temperatures staying cool in the 40s with low to mid 50s in the
mid-Hudson Valley.

These rain showers will continue exiting from northwest to
southeast this evening with rain ending before Midnight. Clouds
partially clear towards sunrise, especially in valley areas,
which may promote enough radiational cooling to result in patchy
fog. Otherwise, overnight lows will drop into the low to mid
40s with mid to upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks and
southern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough will dip southward across the region on
Monday. Deep mixing and steepening lapse rates from daytime
heating should result in enough instability with the cold air
aloft for some isolated to widely scattered showers. Best shower
chances will be for areas north of Interstate 90. Otherwise,
partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected with highs in
the 50s and 60s except some upper 40s across the Adirondacks and
southern Greens.

The trough will begin to lift northward away from the region by
Tuesday as upper-level heights begin to rise and surface high
pressure builds in from the north and west. This will bring the
return of dry weather with a west to northwesterly breeze
continuing. Highs will once again reach the 50s and 60s on
Tuesday. Dry weather continues Tuesday night with lows mainly in
the 30s, except lower 40s across the mid-Hudson Valley into
southern Litchfield County and the upper 20s across the
Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level low will be located across the north-central
CONUS on Wednesday as a warm front attempts to lift
northeastward across our area. Upper-level ridging and surface
high pressure to our north and east looks to maintain dry
conditions as precipitation stays to our south and west. Highs
once again will reach the 50s and 60s.

The upper ridge begins to break down heading into the late week
period allowing the upper-level low/trough and surface frontal
system to slowly push across the region with some periods of
rainfall. The clouds and rainfall will result in a cooler day on
Thursday with highs only in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Shower
coverage may decrease some on Friday before another wave of low
pressure along an approaching cold front bring additional rain
chances next weekend, especially on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR ceilings and visibility remains in
place this evening with rain showers continuing to exit from
north to south. Showers have already ended for GFL with showers
exiting ALB by 01 UTC and PSF/POU by 02 - 03 UTC. A few isolated
lightning are still seen on regional radar so cannot completely
rule out a brief rumble through 03 UTC before rain ends.

VFR cigs/vsby then resume with a stratus deck with cigs around
5kft continuing through at least 06 UTC. Guidance continues to
suggest stratus clouds at least partially clear thereafter but
latest GOES16 night fog channel shows upstream stratus clouds
widespread across the North Country into the Upper Hudson Valley
and west/southern Adirondacks. Since guidance was off with the
severe potential, we are skeptical the clouds will clear as much
as guidance suggests so we only included a TEMPO for patchy fog
developing during the pre-dawn to early morning hours (6 - 11
UTC). Best chance for any early patchy fog looks to be at GFL
and PSF.

After any early patchy fog, VFR conditions resume at terminals
through the rest of the TAF period.

Winds have turned light this evening and will remain light (less
than 5kts) out of the northwest or variable overnight. Winds
shift to the west-northwest tomorrow and become quite gusty by
14 - 16 UTC with sustained winds reaching 8-15kts and gusts up
to 20-25kts. Strongest winds expected at ALB and PSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Main