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000
FXUS61 KALY 141951
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
351 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper off from
northwest to southeast through this evening with drier weather
arriving overnight. An upper-level trough will result in some
isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday, mainly north of
Interstate 90. High pressure will bring dry and milder weather
on Tuesday and Wednesday with unsettled weather returning later
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure is crossing western New York with a warm front
stretching from west to east across the mid-Hudson Valley.
Occasional rain showers will continue into the evening hours
with the best chances for thunder south of Interstate 90 in
closer proximity to the warm front where some weak elevated
instability is present. Wind has not been a factor with these
storms as of yet but there has been a history of small hail in
the taller cores given the cold air aloft. If any storm can
become more surface based, then some strong wind gusts will be
possible. This is likely favored across far southern areas later
this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise, some sub- severe
hail will be possible in any of the other taller cores. The
Storm Prediction Center keeps portions of the eastern Catskills
in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms and this is where the
better severe potential is through this evening. Elsewhere, the
severe threat looks low.

Precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast this
evening as the cold front crosses the region. Drier air returns
for the overnight hours with some partial clearing. This could
result in some patchy fog development. Lows will fall back to
the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough will dip southward across the region on
Monday. Deep mixing and steepening lapse rates from daytime
heating should result in enough instability with the cold air
aloft for some isolated to widely scattered showers. Best shower
chances will be for areas north of Interstate 90. Otherwise,
partly to mostly cloudy conditions are expected with highs in
the 50s and 60s except some upper 40s across the Adirondacks and
southern Greens.

The trough will begin to lift northward away from the region by
Tuesday as upper-level heights begin to rise and surface high
pressure builds in from the north and west. This will bring the
return of dry weather with a west to northwesterly breeze
continuing. Highs will once again reach the 50s and 60s on
Tuesday. Dry weather continues Tuesday night with lows mainly in
the 30s, except lower 40s across the mid-Hudson Valley into
southern Litchfield County and the upper 20s across the
Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level low will be located across the north-central
CONUS on Wednesday as a warm front attempts to lift
northeastward across our area. Upper-level ridging and surface
high pressure to our north and east looks to maintain dry
conditions as precipitation stays to our south and west. Highs
once again will reach the 50s and 60s.

The upper ridge begins to break down heading into the late week
period allowing the upper-level low/trough and surface frontal
system to slowly push across the region with some periods of
rainfall. The clouds and rainfall will result in a cooler day on
Thursday with highs only in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Shower
coverage may decrease some on Friday before another wave of low
pressure along an approaching cold front bring additional rain
chances next weekend, especially on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions in place with light warm
frontal rain showers affecting the region. Scattered showers
will continue to track eastward through the afternoon as the
warm front slowly advances, although precipitation so far has
remained light with impacts to vsbys. VFR cigs may trend
downward to MVFR levels, particularly within heavier shower
elements this afternoon. The likelihood of thunder through this
evening has trended down at all terminals, with TS mentioned
only at POU where conditions are more supportive of convection,
and most likely during the cold frontal passage around or after
00Z Mon.

Precipitation will exit eastward by 03-04Z Mon, with VFR cigs
expected to return at ALB/POU while GFL/PSF are more likely to
see MVFR levels. Areas of mist or fog are possible overnight,
most likely at GFL. Unrestricted vsbys and MVFR/low-VFR cigs are
anticipated after 12-15Z Mon through the remainder of the
period.

South winds at 6-10 kt with possible gusts of 15-20 kt at
POU/PSF will turn out of the southwest and ultimately out of
the west following the cold frontal passage by 03Z Mon. Briefly
stronger gusty winds are possible during any thunderstorms at
POU. Speeds will otherwise lessen overnight, after 03Z Mon,
before increasing to 8-12 kt after 12-15Z Mon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Picard