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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161916
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
216 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today and Wednesday will be a time in between system with a small
ridge passing across the southern plains. This will see dry and
fair weather across the panhandles for the rest of today through
Wednesday. Today still has a tight pressure gradient lingering in
the southern plains from the departing weather system in the
midwest. This is causing gusty winds for the afternoon hours in
the panhandles with gusts in the 20s to 30s mph with an occasional
gusts that could be stronger. This gradient will move away during
the late afternoon leading to a rapid weakening of the winds
during this time leaving them weak through Wednesday. The passage
of the small ridge will bring a single day of warm up with highs
of 70s and 80s today increasing to just 80s for Wednesday. With
the lack of any significant moisture at any level sunny skies will
be the normal for now through Wednesday.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances are forecast late
this week through this upcoming weekend. Rain chances return on
Saturday into Sunday with little accumulation expected at this
time. Temperatures may return back to near average during the
early portions of next week.

Zonal flow aloft is favored across the central CONUS to end this
work week. Model guidance continues to show a southward moving
cold front trekking across the CWA on Thursday. The timing of the
front will likely change, but as of now it looks like the front
will be through the entire area by mid morning on Thursday. Breezy
to gusty northerly winds are forecast behind the front. These
northerly winds will usher in a cooler airmass which looks to
remain in place through this upcoming weekend. Afternoon high
temperatures from Thursday through Sunday are forecast to remain
below average with Saturday being the coldest day. Highs on
Saturday may struggle to even reach 50 degrees for some locations
across the area given a secondary cold air push along with
persistent cloud cover throughout the day. Will also need to keep
an eye out for overnight lows during these days as they may drop
down close to freezing as the growing season has started for the
Panhandles. Lift provided by a disturbance is expected to move
across the Southern Plains on Saturday. The lift provided by the
disturbance should be enough to kick off some showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Current LREF guidance has over 80
percent of membership suggesting at least some light rainfall for
our area. Amounts do not look to be all that beneficial at this
time, but some locations may see a quarter inch or more of
rainfall from this system. Ridging is looking likely to move in
across the western CONUS by early next week and should begin
moving over the Panhandles early next week bringing temperatures
back to near average.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty at 20s to 30s kt from the W to
NW this afternoon. These winds will weaken quickly during the
evening becoming fairly light with at times variable direction.
Winds are expected to pick up a southerly direction during
Wednesday morning but still remain on the weak side.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Gusty winds and low to mid RH are present in the panhandles this
afternoon leading to elevated to low end critical fire weather
conditions. This has seen a few RFTI creep to a 4 briefly but the
majority are at a lower 0 to 3. It is possible for the higher RFTI
to continue to occur on and off while the winds are gusty which
should be through the rest of the afternoon hours. Once the winds
weaken rapidly going into the evening the fire threat will
likewise swiftly end. This may require the Red Flag warning to be
cancelled early once the winds cease to gust.

SH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                47  84  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  45  85  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              43  81  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  49  87  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              44  85  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  46  85  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               49  85  53  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 41  82  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  84  43  65 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                46  85  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                49  85  51  67 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  85  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                49  85  52  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              49  86  51  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>006.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98