Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 210943
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
443 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
A weak open wave upper-level low is spinning roughly over
Albuquerque as of 06z, and rain showers are being observed south of
the CWA which appears to be associated with 700mb theta-e advection
and upper-level divergence. The low is forecast to move east-
southeast through the night and morning hours while the mid-level
theta-e plume advects northeast. As such, it is possible that
Collingsworth County gets clipped by light showers later tonight,
but confidence is low. Otherwise, winds will weaken later tonight,
and combined with clear skies and decent low-level moisture, fog
will be possible in the northern combined Panhandles that lasts
through a portion of the morning.
Surface winds turn southerly to southeasterly today which will help
bring in dew points in the 40s for much of the area to low 50s in
the southeast. Some models suggest that the upper-level low will
become a closed low and strengthen through the day in response to
700mb PVA and increasing upper-level divergence resulting from a
strengthening jet streak. Meanwhile other models (namely the RAP and
HRRR) keep it an open wave and maintains its current strength. The
latter solution keeps better forcing and richer moisture southeast
of the Panhandles, keeping almost all of the CWA dry. The former
solution presents the chance for rain and possibly a thunderstorm
off the caprock but especially in the southeastern Texas Panhandle
due to stronger forcing and richer moisture. However, even within
those solutions there is disagreement regarding the track of the
low; some solutions keep the low further southeast while others try
to clip Collingsworth County. Will cautiously lean toward the
solution in which the low closes off and deepens through the day
based on the mid to upper-level dynamics, but not sold that the
southeast will see precipitation based on some of the holdouts
regarding the behavior of the low. NBM gave 50-70% PoPs for the
southeast Texas Panhandle, but have opted to limit it to less than
50% PoPs though there is room to lower it further. Some of the
models that have the closed low solution also produces bands of
rain in the central Texas Panhandle seemingly associated with
converging winds along a surface boundary. Given the previously
discussed uncertainties, have limited PoPs to 15% or less in that
area. Again, can`t rule out a thunderstorm if it does happen.
The chance for rain comes to an end Thursday night as heights aloft
rise. A cold front moves in during the day Friday which knocks highs
into the mid-60s to low-70s with no chance for rain. A southwest to
northeast oriented ridge builds over the southern Plains Friday
night ahead of an upper-level low that moves onto the West Coast,
setting the stage for active weather this weekend as discussed below.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Broad southwest flow aloft is anticipated on Saturday ahead of the
next vigorous upper level low pressure system progged to be moving
across the western states on that day. A deepening surface trof is
expected to develop over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico
on Saturday. The resulting tight pressure gradient will cause
breezy to windy conditions across the region Saturday and Saturday
night. South to southwest winds are expected to increase further
on Sunday as the surface trof continues to intensify in response
to the approaching upper level storm system. Medium range models
and ensembles are in general agreement that this next storm system
will likely track north of the forecast area, with dry slotting
progged. The far eastern zones may have a threat for isolated
thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and early evening. However,
most models are dry areawide during the day on Sunday, with the
NBM holding on to slight chance pops for eastern sections. Any
thunderstorms that form over far eastern sections may have the
potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the
primary hazards. The one major concern is the quality of moisture
return for the eastern zones as the NBM briefly brings dewpoints
into the 40s across this area Sunday morning, then strong south to
southwest winds effectively push the deeper moisture well into
Oklahoma Sunday afternoon as seen by the latest forecast dewpoints
falling into the 20s to perhaps mid 30s during that time frame.
Therefore, it remains to be seen if any thunderstorms will develop
Sunday afternoon or evening if latest medium range models are to
verify. Wraparound moisture seems likely to affect the area Sunday
night and Monday with the northwestern zones favored overall while
the southeastern zones have the lowest threat. NBM pops seem plausible
for Sunday night and Monday. Some light wintry precipitation is
certainly possible Sunday night and Monday as cooler air invades
the region in the wake of a cold front. Any snowfall accumulations
are forecast to remain below one inch at this time, and restricted
to the far northwest sections. Dry weather along with moderating
temperatures is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper
level storm system moves away from the area.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Conditions are VFR for now, but soon after winds calm down to
around 5 kts later tonight, ceilings will lower quickly and
visibility will drop for Dalhart and Guymon. Currently expecting
this to happen around 11z, but will continue to monitor through
the night and make amendments as needed. Conditions will improve
later in the morning.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday
across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to twenty foot south
to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 to 50
mph, minimum relative humidity values of 15 to 20 percent, and
maximum RFTI values around 4 to 5.
02
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 68 41 69 38 / 20 0 0 0
Beaver OK 68 39 69 31 / 20 0 0 0
Boise City OK 68 38 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 73 43 72 38 / 20 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 71 38 72 38 / 20 0 0 0
Canyon TX 68 39 71 38 / 20 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 66 44 73 38 / 30 10 0 0
Dalhart TX 69 35 67 35 / 10 0 0 0
Guymon OK 68 37 66 33 / 10 0 0 0
Hereford TX 69 37 73 38 / 20 10 0 0
Lipscomb TX 69 42 68 33 / 20 10 0 0
Pampa TX 68 43 69 36 / 20 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 67 44 73 36 / 40 20 0 0
Wellington TX 66 45 73 38 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52