Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271910
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
210 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight warming trend the rest of the week.

- Mix precipitation likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Low pressure system this weekend is still trending south,
  resulting in less snow in North Dakota.

- Another warming trend may begin next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure still dominates the state, leading to clear skies
and light winds. Aloft, a short lived ridge is moving in,
helping boost Thursday highs, along with a surface low in
Wyoming. Winds will be breezy in the west from the pressure
gradient.

Thursday night a warm front from this low will move through.
Creating a warm layer aloft for freezing rain to mix with snow
across most of the western and the south central parts of the
state, Thursday night to Friday morning. Based on model
soundings it seems very possible as there is a warm nose, but
drier air down low. We kept what the NBM produced in the
forecastas the it seems very possible still.

Saturday looks mostly dry under zonal flow as a low develops off
the Southern Rockies. The trend in this system took another
shift to the south. Now mainly just the southern tier of
counties might see a chance at 1 inch of snow and elsewhere
would just be light snow Saturday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
The clusters vary on giving the southern half of the state
anywhere from a trace to 4 inches. The cluster with 4 inches is
mostly the Canadian and the Euro models which have a slightly
more northern track. Also to note, that is just 1 of the 4
scenarios and with the last two days trending south, its seems
unlikely.

Monday the system clears out with a big western CONUS ridge.
Temperatures next week look like they should trend to near or
above average in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR through the period with mostly clear skies. Some high clouds
may move in later in the period. Winds will light, switching to
mostly southeasterly, maybe gusting around 15kts at the end of
the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith


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