Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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269
FXUS63 KBIS 191744
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Not much change with this forecast update. Fog continues to
rapidly lift across western and central North Dakota. Expect
sunshine to break out this afternoon for areas still seeing patchy
fog.

UPDATE Issued at 1050 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Surface weather observations and webcams show fog across western
and central North Dakota rapidly lifting. Improvement is expected
to continue, so the Dense Fog Advisories will be allowed to expire
at 11 AM CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 952 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight and tomorrow morning
across much of north central and parts of northwest North Dakota.
Both the latest CAM model runs and forecast NAM BUFR soundings
support the redevelopment of fog tonight in these areas, however
it does not look to be as widespread as the dense fog is this
morning.

UPDATE Issued at 932 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Quick update to expand the Dense Fog Advisory into Bottineau
county per satellite and webcam trends.

UPDATE Issued at 731 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Expanded Dense Fog Advisory further east into Burleigh, Sheridan,
Wells, McHenry and Pierce counties as webcams and surface weather
stations are showing visibilities near zero in dense fog.

UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Issued a dense fog advisory for the northwest Quarter of North
Dakota through 11 am CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Minor update to expand fog across western and central North Dakota
through the morning hours. Some locations could see visibility
down to 1/4 mile at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Widespread fog is the main highlight in the short term.

Light winds combined with a lowering stratus deck is leading to
widespread fog across most of western and portions of central
North Dakota early this morning. Fog will likely continue through
the morning hours.

Temperatures will be similar to yesterday`s. Clouds will clear out
and plenty of sun will lead to temperatures in the 40s and 50s
across the area. Remaining snowpack will continue to rapidly melt.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A pattern change to warmer temperatures and drier weather will
overtake western and central North Dakota this weekend.

Saturday and Sunday look very nice with temperatures in the 60s
for most locations. There may be some minor fire concerns possible
Sunday/Monday with low humidity and breezy winds around 20 mph.

Compressional warming with the presence of a front nearby Sunday
will likely lead to high temperatures that are noticeably higher
than what a lot of the forecast guidance suggests. Model snow
depth values remain to high compared to observations, which is
keeping the forecast temperatures too low. In addition, bias-
corrected model guidance is too cold as well, since this data is
corrected based off the cold pattern we`ve been in lately and
doesn`t correlate with the warmer pattern change. For this reason
high temperatures were increased over most guidance values.

A potent shortwave will swing through North Dakota from the west
on Monday through Tuesday, leading to chances for rain and
possibly mixed with snow overnight across southern North Dakota.
Conditions look to dry back out for Wednesday as a ridge tries to
build back in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Fair weather cumulus clouds will continue to develop this
afternoon and lead to MVFR/VFR conditions through sunset. An area
of low to mid clouds will move into North Dakota tonight with
MVFR/VFR conditions continuing for all terminals. Patchy fog will
likely affect KMOT between 05z and 14z, leading to IFR
conditions. Fog may also affect KISN during this time as well,
however confidence is not as high for this terminal.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TK



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