Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 252011
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
311 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The main focus for the short-term is isolated thunderstorms east
this evening and thunderstorms west tomorrow evening.

There appears to be just enough upper level ascent to spark some
isolated showers/thunderstorms across the James Valley this
evening. Coverage should be limited and as soon as diurnal heating
wanes they should dissipate.

Tomorrow evening a lee surface low develops and the upper level
ridge begins to push east. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
later Saturday evening west as moist advection kicks in and
forcing improves along the surface trough. Models differ with
respect to just how much instability will be available, but there
does appear to be enough shear (40ish knots) to present a threat
of a few severe storms.

High temperatures Saturday will approach record highs with
readings in the low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The Memorial weekend forecast is setting up to be warm with
increasing chances for thunderstorms. An upper low out west will
slowly migrate northeast toward the Northern Plains. This should
set up an active period for thunderstorms Saturday night through
Wednesday.

Precipitable water is forecast to be above the 90th percentile
for this time of the year, and therefore heavy rain is possible in
any thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally, with the
presence of a warm front and increasing low-level moisture severe
storms with 2,000+ J/KG CAPE and 40-50 knots of shear are
possible Sunday across a good portion of western and central North
Dakota.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Monday through Thursday
with highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Westerly winds will
diminish this evening and become southerly across western North
Dakota by tomorrow morning.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ



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