000
FXUS63 KBIS 191955
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
255 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds and scattered snow showers diminishing tonight.
  Overnight lows will remain in the upper teens to upper 20s.

- Warming trend and dry conditions through the weekend.
  Northwest winds on Saturday will become southerly on Sunday.

- Rain chances return Sunday night through Monday into early
  Tuesday. Greatest chances (~30 to 60 percent chance) during
  the day on Monday. Gusty winds could also be found on Monday.

- Temperatures become near seasonable conditions mid to late
  week. A chance for rain (~20 to 40%) may return later in the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Exiting upper level low continues to bring cloudy skies,
scattered light snow showers, and breezy to windy northwest
winds late this afternoon. As a surface high moves in tonight,
clouds and winds should diminish as well as chances for snow
showers. Until then, lingered snow showers through the evening
and partly to mostly cloudy skies into the early overnight
hours. Winds through the evening will be close to advisory level
in some areas, however, confidence in issuance of a wind
highlight still remains low. Lows tonight will remain below
freezing and generally in the upper teens to lower 20s. Surface
high takes over for Saturday, although northwest flow aloft will
continue to bring some breezy northwest winds to a few areas.
Temperatures will warm into the 40s and 50s for most areas. Dry
conditions will be found, lowering afternoon RH values into the
20s to lower 30s for most areas. With cooler temperatures and
not as much wind, critical fire weather conditions are not
expected. Surface high shifts southward, while an upper level
ridge moves overhead, for Sunday. This brings a warmer westerly
becoming southerly flow to the area. Temperatures should warm to
more normal readings. RH values will again be low and in the
20s. Winds will shift to the south, although remain less than 20
MPH. Thus critical fire weather conditions are not expected for
Sunday at this time.

Sunday night through Tuesday, a clipper system pushes the ridge
eastward. This system will bring our next chances for rain
across the area, especially Monday although chances will be
found Sunday night through Tuesday. NBM Probs of 0.50" or great
are low and generally less that 10%. This would indicate a quick
moving system with limited moisture, although a chance for 0.10"
or great are generally 20 to 40%. The gradient from this system
could bring some strong winds on Monday, especially to the
southwest and will be worth monitoring. A slight cool down will
also be noted with this system, although high temperatures could
still be near to only slightly below normal.

Mid week is looking fairly seasonable and dry with clusters
showing brief ridging moving through the area. The clusters then
hint at a broad trough pattern setting up later in the week
through the weekend. This could bring our next widespread
chances for mainly rain. Temperature spreads are a touch wide in
the NBM, likely due to timing, location, and precipitation
associated with this trough. However, CPC 6 to 10 day
temperature outlook are favoring above normal temperatures for
this time period, with slightly above normal precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Lingering low cloud and scattered snow showers could bring
periods of MVFR today. Used VCSH with TEMPO groups for TAF sites
with at least a 50% chance of snow showers through this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Snow showers should
diminish this evening, however, lower clouds may linger before
lifting back to VFR heights overnight tonight. Mainly clear
skies are then expected for Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will
be found today, diminishing tonight. Northwest winds could then
linger through Saturday, although should be less gusty.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin