Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 182005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
305 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The Winter Weather Advisory appears on target for tonight through
tomorrow morning. Light snow/freezing drizzle continues to develop
across southwest North Dakota this afternoon. Freezing drizzle
will give way to all snow by later this evening.

The consensus among forecast models is to focus the highest snow
amounts across western and north central North Dakota. The latest
trends shift the heaviest axis a bit further west and place it
between Beach and Glen Ullin. Three to five inches of snow, with
isolated six inches seem likely across the Advisory area.

Heaviest snow amounts are expected between 6 pm and midnight
across western North Dakota, and midnight and 6 am across north
central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Light snow is possible Tuesday with the passing of a quick upper
level wave. Wednesday and Thursday look dry and milder with a
ridge building in over the central US. Highs are expected to
reach into the lower 40s southwest and 30s elsewhere.

By the end of the week into the weekend, a large and potent
negatively tilted upper low over the northwest US will send some
shortwave energy into the Northern Plains. Current trends suggest
another opportunity for accumulating snow Friday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Areas of LIFR cigs and vis will continue in fog over areas of
western North Dakota this afternoon. LIFR to IFR cigs and vis will
remain overnight into Monday as snow spreads over the area. Over
central North Dakota, most locations will remain IFR through the
forecast period with low ceilings, and reduced visibility in snow.


Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Monday for



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