Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
853 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Issued at 851 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Scattered thunderstorms have been persistant to develop over
southern portions of the area, generally along and south of
Interstate 94, and then lift to the northeast this morning. Have
updated forecast to address this through the morning hours. Have
also increased cloud cover throughout the area as latest satellite
imagery continues to show high cloud cover covering much of the
area. Expect these storms should taper off by mid-day. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Convective system over central North Dakota has accelerated
eastward and will be exiting the east this morning, probably
before 10 am cdt. Then expect regenerative convection this
evening Southwest spreading east again.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

At 4 am CDT a convective system moving through northern North
Dakota will spread moderate to heavy rain across the north central
with strong wind gusts across the central sections to the south
through the remainder of the early morning. Scattered thunderstorms
will form and move east across the James river valley associated
with a warm front across northern South Dakota.

Expect these areas to move east and diminish with time especially
as sunrise approaches.

The morning hours are expected to see a diurnal minimum for
convection as the low level jet regenerates for another round of
active convection Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The extended forecast will be quite active with the upper low over
teh great basing lifting north and through the northern plains.
temperatures will also cool with highs Monday through Wednesday in
the 70s to lower 80s. With the precipitable water still on the
high side the potential for widespread moderate to heavy rain is
at least reasonable through the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Hazards to aviation include thunderstorms at KJMS between 12-15Z
today with storms regenerating after 00Z KDIK. Otherwise VFR all
TAF sites.




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