Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270150
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
850 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cold tonight, with lows around 5 below to 5 above
  zero.

- A warming trend is expected through Thursday, but with
  temperatures remaining colder than average.

- A more active pattern is forecast to begin later this week,
  with medium chances for mixed precipitation Thursday night and
  Friday, and snow over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Surface observations show flurries are falling from the low
clouds over north central North Dakota. Isolated flurries have
been added to the forecast there for the rest of the evening. A
few high-resolution models are also showing a chance for light
snow along a baroclinic zone cutting across southwest North
Dakota Wednesday morning. This may need to be added to the
forecast with future updates, but no accumulation is expected.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Only minimal forecast changes were needed for this update. A
clear sky above surface ridging across western and south
central North Dakota this evening could allow temperatures to
drop quickly after sunset. Based on these observations and small
ensemble spread, the low temperature forecast for tonight was
lowered to at least the 50th percentile of NBM guidance, which
puts most of the aforementioned areas around zero to 5 below.
Breezier conditions with increased cloud cover to the east
should keep overnight temperatures above zero there, but
perhaps just slightly so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A upper lever low and surface high pressure moved into the state
today. Filtering in colder temperatures and clear skies. Another
night of well below temperatures tonight, around 0 or slightly
below zero in the west again. With winds remaining elevated in
the east, patchy blowing snow will still be a concern overnight.

Wednesday through Thursday will be a warming trend up to the mid
30s and mid 40s as a ridge moves overhead. Friday the flow goes
southwest as a Clipper moves through, bringing the chance of
mix precip west to east. Precipitation types are still uncertain
at this point, but with surface temperatures above freezing
during the day at least a rain/snow mix is likely. Snow
accumulations are minimal for this, the highest will occur in
the north where temperatures are cooler. Then through the
weekend a potential Colorado Low makes a glancing pass to the
south. This again has multiple uncertainties, both for the
track and the precip types as surface temperatures are forecast
above freezing during the day. A few models have very different
tracks, so as of now impacts are low, and it looks like most of
the snow would be south of Interstate 94. Keep checking back
for updates as we get closer, and remember to check your sources
for snowfall amounts this far out.

Looking towards next week, temperatures try to warm back to
average (upper 40s). This is from a potential broad ridge moving
in. The CPC temperature outlooks for April have a chance (40%)
for above average through the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast period. KJMS and
KMOT could see scattered to broken ceilings around 3,000 ft
later tonight into Wednesday morning, with a clear sky expected
to the west. Northwest winds will diminish this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan


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