Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250741
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
241 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow has tapered off across most of western and central North
  Dakota. Snow will linger through much of Monday in the James
  River Valley.

- Well below average temperatures remain through mid-week before
  a warming trend takes us closer to near normal temperatures.

- A weather disturbance late this week may bring another round
  of precipitation to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Again, based on the latest radar trends and short term
(nowcast) model guidance we have decided to update to drop more
counties from the ongoing advisory, and to change the entire ongoing
warning to an advisory. Blowing and drifting snow will continue
to be an issue today east and south of Bismarck. This in
collaboration with neighboring NWS offices (Grand Forks and
Aberdeen).

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Snow has rapidly diminished to flurries in the Minot area and
at Dickinson as well. As a result of that we have decided to
cancel the winter weather advisory in those areas.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Based on current radar trends and surface observations, along
with satellite imagery, we have decided to cancel the winter
weather advisory for counties along the Montana border. We also
took some time to refine pops based on radar trends and short
term (nowcast) model guidance. This resulted in a general
decrease in pops west and north to an increase in them
southeast.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Snow has decreased in intensity and remains quite light over the
area, but coverage remains quite high. So, have increased
chances going into the overnight. Expect this to diminish,
especially over the north and west, as the night goes on.

As for headlines, have converted much of the winter storm
warning to a winter weather advisory with the exception of far
south central North Dakota into the lower James River Valley, as
impacts over the converted areas have diminished with snow
becoming quite light and blowing snow becoming quite hit and
miss.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

For early evening update, main change was to keep higher snow
chances across much of the area through at least late evening as
a broad area of light snow continues to lift into the area from
eastern Montana/western South Dakota. Thereafter, kept medium
chances going into the overnight as coverage becomes more hit
and miss.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Light snow continues across western and central North Dakota
this afternoon. Occasional heavier bands have been lifting
northward across western and far south central ND. This is where
the heaviest additional accumulations are expected through this
evening. The southern James River Valley looks to be the only
area that could see significant snow after tonight as the main
low tracks from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, thus
we have kept the Winter Storm Warning over these areas.
Elsewhere, we have downgraded the warning to an advisory over a
large chunk of central ND, mainly along the I-94 corridor north
to the Highway 200 corridor. We expect that later this evening
if we aren`t seeing significant blowing snow, much of the
warning/advisory (especially over the west half of the state)
may be able to be cancelled. Forecast QPF amounts drop off .UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Snow has rapidly diminished to flurries in the Minot area and
at Dickinson as well. As a result of that we have decided to
cancel the winter weather advisory in those areas.

significantly after midnight.

Monday the main forecast concern will be the wind and the
potential for blowing and drifting snow. The James River Valley
would be the most impacted if the see some snow accumulation
tonight. West of the JRV, snow amounts will probably not be
enough for significant blowing/drifting. Temperatures Monday
will be well below normal with highs mainly in the mid teens to
upper 20s.

Monday night and Tuesday will continue to bring below normal
temperatures. Lows Monday night may drop below freezing in
portions of the west. Highs Tuesday will also remain in the
upper teens to upper 20s.

Mid to late week we should see a modest warm-up with highs
climbing into the mid 30s to mid 40s by the weekend. This keeps
us near to below normal temperature wise. Precipitation chances
are few and far between late Tuesday through the daytime
Thursday. Hit and miss precipitation chances enter the forecast
Thursday night and into the weekend, but the potential for a
stronger system looks to be low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

-SN and patchy BLSN continues through the first half of the
 forecast period for the KJMS area while -SN chances decrease
 over the rest of the forecast area. Expect MVFR visibility and
 ceilings in that -SN. Gusty northeast to north winds east of a
 line from KMOT-KBIS, on the order of G35 knots maximum.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ025-
036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JPM


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