Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
214 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Minor update to fog and precipitation. Fog has become more
widespread across western North Dakota. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued as visibilities have dropped to 1/4 mile
in some spots.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Adjusted precipitation types/coverage for this morning based on
latest trends. Light snow/drizzle is occurring across southwest
North Dakota this morning. This area of precipitation will slowly
spread north through the early afternoon. All snow is expected by
the afternoon hours. Fog, dense at times, continues across mainly
southwest North Dakota. As precipitation moves in visibility
should improve.

UPDATE Issued at 813 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A few NDDOT webcams over portions of central North Dakota
continue to show some significantly reduced visibility, but this
does not appear to be widespread. Therefore, have increased
coverage of fog for morning update, and put out a special weather
statement addressing the occasional significant reduction in
visibility. Otherwise, forecast looks to be in fine shape.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A weak plume of reflectivity is moving into southwest North Dakota
so made some small adjustments to pops (Slight Chance) for the
morning. Otherwise current forecast looks on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

We have issued a winter weather advisory for snow and light
freezing drizzle for this afternoon, tonight and Monday morning.
This advisory covers much of the west and central, but does not
include the far north nor the far south central.

Consensus among models focus the highest snow amounts across the
west and north central, from Dickinson northeast to Minot where 3
to 5 inches are forecast, with an isolated 6 inch amount
possible. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler
today than previously thought, which will keep most of the
precipitation as snow, although some rain will mix in at first
across the south.

While most models have modest frontogenesis, the NAM, which
showed strong mesoscale banding and moderate to strong
frontogenesis, with associated much higher QPF, was judged the
outlier and not considered. The GFS and ECMWF looked reasonable
and the Superblend guidance was used with little adjustment.

Some patchy freezing drizzle is possible southwest today, then
mainly snow tonight and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

There will be a residual chance for snow on Tuesday then
Wednesday and Thursday look dry and milder, with an h500 ridge
over teh central US. Highs are expected to reach into the lower
40s southwest and 30s elsewhere.

By the end of the week into the weekend, a large and potent
negatively tilter upper low over the northwest US will send some
shortwave energy into teh northern Plains. Current trends suggest
another opportunity for accumulating snow Friday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Areas of LIFR cigs and vis will continue in fog over areas of
western North Dakota this afternoon. LIFR to IFR cigs and vis will
remain overnight into Monday as snow spreads over the area. Over
central North Dakota, most locations will remain IFR through the
forecast period with low ceilings, and reduced visibility in snow.


Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Monday for



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