455
FNUS74 KBMX 292332
FWSBMX

Spot Forecast for TipTop night...USFS Shoal Creek
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
632 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 CDT on April 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

The rain is (as of 615 pm) still several hours away from the burn
location. The bulk of the rain will come after midnight tonight, and
most should be gone before noon on Tuesday. Based on recent radar
trends, much of the rain will probably be light in intensity, although
some showers (and even an isolated thunderstorm) could bring a period
of heavier downpours.

Not much change in wind direction (south) or speed (at or below 10 mph)
is expected overnight at the burn site. Wind speeds could be marginally
higher the farther up the ridge you go, but nothing more than an extra
5 mph or so. Wind direction will switch around more to the west as the
rain ends on Tuesday, which is indicative of cold front passage.

.REST OF TONIGHT...
TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........56     72     83     90     90     91
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10     10     20     50     50     70
LAL.............1      1      1      2      2      3
Temp............75     69     67     65     64     62
RH..............54     66     75     84     87     93
20 FT wind......SE 6   SE 6   S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6
20 FT wind gust.10     10     10     11     11     11
20 FT wind dir..150    150    160    170    180    180
Mix hgt (ft)....500    700    800    700    500    500
Transport wind..S 10   S 10   S 12   S 12   S 12   S 10
Dispersion idx..0      6      8      8      10     7
LVORI...........3      3      3      4      4      6

.TUESDAY...
TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     84     71     63     57     39
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............70     70     60     60     40     30
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3
Temp............62     62     65     69     70     73
RH..............93     97     87     76     73     66
20 FT wind......S 6    S 6    S 7    S 7    SW 7   W 6
20 FT wind gust.11     11     12     11     10     10
20 FT wind dir..170    170    170    190    210    250
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1000   1900   2000   2200   2700
Transport wind..S 10   S 12   S 15   S 15   SW 14  W 12
Dispersion idx..7      10     17     36     37     35
LVORI...........6      7      3      3      3      3

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........24     15     14     19     24     34
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
CWR.............30     0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............3      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............72     67     64     61     59     58
RH..............68     81     87     97     100    100
20 FT wind......NW 3   NW 2   NW 2   NW 2   NW 2   NW 2
20 FT wind gust.7      6      5             5      5
20 FT wind dir..300    320    320    320    320    330
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   800    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 9    NW 8   NW 9   NW 7   NW 6   N 7
Dispersion idx..18     8      5      3      3      3
LVORI...........3      4      6      6      9      9

$$
Forecaster...Westland
Requested by...Aaron Radford
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412662.2/BMX
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0