Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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364 FXUS63 KDDC 282319 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 619 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend can be expected through Wednesday, with unseasonably warm temperatures Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 WV imagery indicates a closed upper low lifting northeast across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is moving northeast through eastern Kansas. Tranquil conditions are expected during the period as the SREF indicates a closed upper low lifting farther northeast into the Upper Midwest tonight, giving way to weak ridging aloft transitioning eastward through the Northern Plains Monday. With a weakening flow aloft across the Western High Plains and a lack of moisture return in the lower levels, precip chances (<10%) will remain relatively absent from western Kansas through late Monday afternoon. Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast tonight as a weak surface high migrating through the Central Plains returns a southerly flow to western Kansas by early Monday morning, helping draw slightly warmer air back into the area. With the HREF showing a 30-40% probability of temperatures falling below 40F in central Kansas to a 20-40% probability of temperatures falling below 45F in south central Kansas, expect lows generally in the 40s(F) with the upper 30s(F) in west central and central Kansas. For Monday, the HREF paints a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in west central Kansas to 90% in south central Kansas and southern portions of southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma border. So, look for afternoon highs in the 70s(F) to near 80F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) remain in the forecast for central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas mid-week as medium range ensembles (EPS) indicate an upper level shortwave trough swinging through the Great Basin Wednesday, ushering an attendant cold front into western Kansas Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Prevailing southerlies will draw ample moisture up into eastern/central Kansas ahead of a developing low in eastern Colorado, increasing instability. Although timing of the system remains uncertain, thunderstorm development can be expected sometime late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Southern Rockies through the Western High Plains in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates. As it stands now, the best chance for thunderstorms will be across central Kansas where the NBM 4.1 paints a 30-40% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.15 of an inch by early Thursday morning. A warming trend continues into Tuesday as prevailing south-southwesterlies draw warmer air into western Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front, pushing H85 temperatures up around the mid-teens(c) in central Kansas to a little above 20C along the Oklahoma border. With the NBM 4.1 indicating a 40-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F in west central and central Kansas to a 90% probability of values exceeding 85F all along the Oklahoma border, expect afternoon highs generally in the 80s(F) with the lower 90s(F) in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are forecast Wednesday as the aforementioned approaching cold front is projected to stall out Tuesday night before lifting back to the north Wednesday. A stronger cold front moving through Wednesday night/early Thursday morning will drop temperatures to more seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Very good aviation weather conditions for this TAF set. Currently some cumulus clouds few to scattered that are above 5,000 ft, and will completely dissipate this by sunset. A isolated shower around Garden City or Liberal cant be ruled out between 8 and 11 UTC, and DDC shortly thereafter, but the probability in reference to a model my model comparison precludes mentioning in the TAF. Wind gusts may redevelop to around 15-20 knots by 17Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...99