000
FXXX12 KWNP 260031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels with three M-class X-ray events
(R1-Minor) observed. Region 3638 (S18, L=231) produced an M1.0 at
25/1321 UTC and an M1.3 flare at 25/1712 UTC, the strongest flare of the
period, as it rotated around the WSW limb. Region 3645 (S08W84,
Dai/beta) produced an M1.0 flare at 25/0149 UTC. The region decayed in
overall area and magnetic complexity as it approached the W limb. Region
3654 (S08E06, Eai/beta-gamma) grew in size, spot count, and complexity
this period. Overall decay was noted within the active region cluster in
the SW. New Region 3659 (S13E34, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period.
All remaining regions were quiet and little changed. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels over 26-27 Apr, with
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). On 28 Apr, solar activity is likely to
be at moderate levels as numerous active regions depart the visible and
near disk.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
reaching a max reading of 1,670 pfu at 251050 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
26-27 Apr declining to normal to moderate levels on 28 Apr. There is a
slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1
(Minor) levels over 26-27 Apr due to the flare potential and location of
several active regions on the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field
strength was at or below 5 nT and the Bz component was mostly northward
through the period. Solar wind speeds weakly varied between +3 to -4 nT.
Solar wind speed varied between a high of near 335 km/s early to a low
of about 290 km/s late. The phi angle was variable.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 26-28 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs
that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels on 26-28 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined
with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the
past several days. A chance for minor (G1) geomagnetic storm periods
exists over 26-27 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry
periods of significant southward Bz.