Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 212337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Updating Aviation section below for the 00Z TAF update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Flurries and sprinkles taper off this afternoon with dry and
slightly warmer conditions Thursday.

Surface ridging over the Northland has kept precipitation limited
to snow flurries over the southwestern portions of the forecast
area this afternoon. A compact shortwave and vort max were
centered over northwestern Minnesota and will continue to drift
southeastward this evening. Clouds may thicken over our western
zones through this evening over Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, and
Itasca counties. A clearing trend is expected Thursday morning
through the afternoon as subsidence returns to the area.

Temperatures tonight will dip into the single figures above zero
in the Minnesota Arrowhead and north-central Wisconsin, with
upper teens to low 20s for our western zones. With increased
sunshine on Thursday, look for highs to climb a few degrees
warmer with readings in the middle 30s northeast to the low 40s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Upper level and surface ridging will be affecting the forecast
area Thursday night and Friday. Friday night finds the ridge being
flattened as a long wave upper trof approaches from the West.
Moisture will have been fed into the region ahead of this trof.
Meanwhile, a surface low will move across Kansas with an inverted
trof extending into the Dakotas/MN border area. This will be the
focus for precipitation to develop and begin in the Brainerd Lakes
as early as late Friday afternoon. The better opportunity for
precipitation is Friday night through Saturday morning along the
western tier of the forecast area. Some light snow accumulation is
possible Friday night from the Brainerd area to near Aitkin.
amounts will likely be in the 1 to 3 inch range. The long wave
trof dissipates Saturday afternoon while the Kansas surface low
moves toward the East Coast. This allows surface ridging to take
control over the region and persists through Sunday morning. By
afternoon, a close low forms over the Four Corners. Warm, moist
air will begin to be advected into the area along with embedded
vorticity maxima. With the warm air, a rain/snow mix is
anticipated in the afternoon, changing to snow Sunday night. As
additional vort maxes lift through the area, the precipitation
continues on Monday with the snow mixing with rain early, then
becoming all rain in the afternoon, then gradually changing back
to snow Monday night. The precipitation diminishes on Tuesday as
ridging returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

High pressure under VFR skies except BRD, which will have MVFR
cigs through the forecast. Dry easterly winds off the lake should
erode the cloud deck as it tries to advect eastward, but believe
BRD will be caught in the transition area of MVFR ceilings.


DLH  17  42  21  38 /  10   0   0   0
INL  15  42  19  41 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  22  42  23  41 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  13  43  18  43 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  13  40  19  39 /  10  10  10  10




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