000
FXUS63 KDLH 142135
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
435 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions linger into early
  evening for much of the Northland due to dry relative
  humidity and breezy northwest winds. Monday will also likely
  see near critical fire weather conditions due to widespread
  dry relative humidity.

- A slow-moving low pressure system is expected to bring rain,
  and eventually rain and light snow, chances to the Northland
  for much of this upcoming workweek.

- Total precipitation amounts and potential snowfall has been
  continuing the decreasing trend in recent model runs that
  stated yesterday. This trend is increasing confidence that
  impacts from this week`s slow- moving system will be mainly
  confined to strong winds on Tuesday and Wednesday (as well as
  providing some much needed rainfall).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

RH values this afternoon have dipped into the 20-30 percent
range, that in combination with the breezy north to northwest
winds have produced near critical fire weather conditions. RH
values should rise above 30 percent and winds should decrease by
early evening, allowing conditions to improve. Monday will be
dry again, but with the ridge axis building into the area, wind
speeds will be much lighter and should reduce the fire weather
concerns.

Attention then turns to the slow moving low pressure system
that should affect much of our upcoming work week. Over the last
couple days as the models have been converging on a more
consistent solution, the low center has been shifting south,
which has in turn brought our total precipitation amount down,
with the maximum precipitation axis having shifted south of the
forecast area. Something that is apparent in the drpog-dt of the
plumes is that the timing of precipitation has not only
lowered, but is also shifting later in time. With that, it
should be no surprise that Monday is now effectively dry through
most of the day, with significant pops of over 30 percent not
moving into the forecast area until Monday night, and even then,
only in the southwestern CWA and not until nearly Tuesday
morning. With the system shifting farther south, our thunder
risk has also decreased, with the highest probability of thunder
now limited to Tuesday late afternoon and evening and only
along our southern border. Pops are highest Tuesday night into
Wednesday, a much shorter time range than we previously thought.
All of this is pointing towards a much less impactful system,
as the heavy rainfall and possible flooding threat is now more
central and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin rather than here in
the Northland. Winds will be the main impact with this system,
as wind speed guidance is remaining fairly strong, even though
the strongest speeds seem to be more limited to along the North
Shore and around the Twin Ports, and mainly Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Temperatures are also generally cooler, though this is
more apparent for Tuesday and Wednesday, with less cooling on
Thursday and Friday. Pops decrease significantly Wednesday night
as the low pulls east away from the area, though an inverted
trough extending to the northwest over the forecast area will
cause pops to linger longer over the northeastern portions of
the forecast area than to the southwest. Even though this system
appears to be shifting south, there is still a lot of warm air
wrapped into it, and I anticipate that we will see little, if
any snow in the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Thursday night into Friday morning is a different story as
colder air oozes into the area from the northwest as the storm
moves farther east. Have a rain/snow mixture in the forecast for
Thursday night and Friday as cyclonic flow instability showers
move across the area. Do not anticipate any significant
accumulations as these will be showery in nature and falling on
top of wet ground.

A ridge axis should build into the area for next weekend giving
us another period of drier weather with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period, with the main
concern being wind today. Northwest winds sustain in the 10-15
kts range with gusts around 20 kts for the afternoon, then
diminish again in the 23z-01z time range, but remaining out of
the northwest then through the end of the TAF period. Clouds
should begin increasing again after 12z, but will remain above
5kft through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Southwesterly winds are in the process of switching around to
the northwest this evening, but generally remaining less than
15kts tonight and Monday. As a low pressure and associated rain
approach the region starting Monday night, winds will become
breezy from the northeast Monday evening and will continue
strengthening into Tuesday. Wind gusts from 20 to 30 knots will
develop Monday night into Tuesday morning, then gales will
become possible going into Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Waves will also be building in excess of 4 feet starting late
Monday night. Winds diminish below gales by Wednesday evening,
but should remain strong and gusty through Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE