000
FXUS63 KDLH 131141
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions today from the Brainerd
  Lakes to Pine County due to dry relative humidity and breezy
  southerly winds. Sunday will also likely see near critical
  fire weather conditions for portions of northeast Minnesota.

- A slow-moving low pressure system is expected to bring rain,
  and eventually rain and light snow, chances to the Northland
  for much of this upcoming workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The 500mb ridge that brought widespread sunshine yesterday will
begin to break down today as a weak amplitude shortwave propagates
into the CWA. Much of the moisture associated with this shortwave
will be concentrated near the International Border and into the
Arrowhead, where scattered rain showers will be possible.
Thunderstorms are unlikely (<10% chance) today, as the highest
values of instability will be occurring in the far southern portions
of the CWA.

In these southern portions of the CWA today, strong southerly flow
is expected to advect dry air into the area. An overall lack of low-
level moisture combined with deep mixing from minimal cloud cover is
expected to result in min RH this afternoon dropping as low as 25
percent from southern Cass County to Pine County. Near critical fire
weather conditions are expected today due to these dry conditions
occurring along with breezy southerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. As the shortwave continues to propagate east this
evening into tonight, expect easing winds as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Additional showers will be possible (30% chance) for
portions of northwest WI this evening, but overall impact will be
minimal.

A weak cold front is progged to sweep through the CWA tonight into
early Sunday morning. Dry air advecting into the region behind this
front will likely lead to another day of near critical fire weather
conditions on Sunday with minimum relative humidity dropping as low
as 25 percent. Driest conditions tomorrow are most likely to occur
along and southeast of US-2 in Minnesota.

Attention turns towards a vertically-stacked low pressure system
that will begin to impact the CWA on Monday and linger into the
latter half of the workweek (if not next weekend!). Currently, this
low pressure is located west of California over the Pacific Ocean.
After coming ashore tonight, this low pressure will slowly propagate
eastward into the central CONUS by Monday. As this low enters the
central CONUS, southerly flow will provide strong moisture advection
towards the CWA from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs in the CWA will be
increasing to the 90th to 97th percentile of climatology on Monday
night through Tuesday. This amount of moisture combined with
favorable synoptic forcing is expected (70%+ chance) to bring over
an inch of rain to a large portion of the CWA between Monday morning
and Friday morning. Rainfall amounts reaching or even exceeding 2
inches are unlikely, but there is still a 30% chance mainly over
northwest Wisconsin and as far west as the I-35 corridor.

The primary concern with this upcoming long-duration storm is the
potential for minor/nuisance flooding and light snow accumulations.
The flooding potential is currently fairly low, despite soils being
fairly saturated from the recent snowpack melt. Since overall rain
rates with this slow moving low pressure will be light to moderate,
any potential flooding will be associated with areas of locally
heavy rainfall. As for areal/river flooding, river levels are
still low, which will limit any impact. Besides flooding
concerns, there is also the potential for light snow
accumulations ranging from 1-3" for the northern half of the CWA
from Wednesday night to Friday morning. Overall though, this
system is expected to bring some much needed rainfall to the CWA
this upcoming workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Clear skies this morning
will gradually become partly to mostly cloudy as mid to high level
clouds arrive from the west. A few showers will be possible in INL
today, and to a lesser extent the other TAF sites except BRD.
Conditions are not expected to deviate from VFR due to these
sporadic showers being light. The only other impactful weather
of note is gusty southerly winds for all terminals later this
morning into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Variable winds this morning across western Lake Superior are
expected to become northeast to east later this morning into the
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory was issued around the head of
the lake for this afternoon and evening as these northeast
winds are expected to gust up to 25 knots and build waves up to
4 feet. A relaxing pressure gradient tonight will result in
light and variable winds, which will last through much of
Sunday.

Looking ahead to this upcoming workweek, a slow moving
low pressure system will likely bring strong winds across
western Lake Superior for much of the workweek. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed with possible Gale Warnings,
especially on Tuesday.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh