Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240840 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
340 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Slightly below normal temperatures are expected for the short
term with a slight chance of a few flurries far southwest early
this morning.

Early this morning an area of low pressure aloft was centered
over eastern South Dakota, with surface low pressure over eastern
Kansas, and high pressure over Hudson Bay. Breezy eastern winds
were found across the Northland in response to the tight pressure
gradient across the Upper Midwest. Radar echoes were observed
over Cass and western portions of Crow Wing Counties this
morning, but the dry air advection from the east was eroding
precipitation before it reaches the ground. Light snow was
reported over portions of western and southern Minnesota and the
eastern Dakotas.

The area of low pressure will slide to the southeast today taking
the precipitation along with it. Continued low-end chance to
slight chance POPs in southern and western Cass and extreme
southwest Crow Wing County. Precip chances quickly end this
morning as forcing for ascent moves away from the Northland. Look
for clouds to linger over much of the area today. With cirrus
overhead indicated by GOES-16 night microphysics RGB and
shortwave IR imagery, the moon and stars are visible from the
office. Think the cirrus is quite thin over much of the Northland
except across the far southern fringe and from Kooch County
southward to the CWA border. Partial sunshine will likely be the
order of the day across the area. Temperatures will remain below
normal for today with highs in the low 30s northeast to the upper
30s to near 40 south.

Continued quiet with partial clearing tonight. Expect low
temperatures in the single figures above zero northeast to the
middle 20s southwest.

A shortwave trough will ride the building ridge over the Upper
Midwest and Canadian Shield Sunday. Look for southerly winds
aloft  and warm air advection to settle in during the day.
Convergence and isentropic ascent will move into western
Minnesota with an approaching warm front during the afternoon. A
few rain showers are possible by late Sunday afternoon over the
western fringe of the forecast area. Highs climb to near normal
with readings in the low to middle 30s northeast to the middle
40s south and northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A longwave trough enters the PacNW over the weekend and slowly
translates east across the country this week. As it strengthens on
Monday night, the left exit of a jet streak enters SW MN. This
feature coupled with a baroclinic zone and strong, moist southerly
850 mb flow will cause a fair amount of precipitation to develop
over the forecast area. Just how much is still in question, but
upwards of a 1/4 to 1/2 an inch of QPF is forecast. The rain/snow
line should be planted firmly over the forecast area, so a span of
wintry mix precipitation is possible, and therefore winter
headlines are possible. Models still differ in specifics, but
overall the QPF signal is quite apparent.

A shortwave passes on Wednesday night for another round of
precipitation though mostly in the form of rain. The main axis of
the upper level trough finally moves overhead on Friday with more
inclement weather though in the form of snow as a large cold blob
sinks over the Great Lakes region. Temperatures fall back to the
single digits by Saturday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

As of late evening, surface low pressure was centered in central
Kansas with high pressure over northern Ontario. A dry easterly
flow was occurring out of the high and has kept the Northland dry
through the evening. VFR conditions were occurring and are
expected for most areas through the period. Some light snow is
possible from KBRD to KXVG and points west tonight but chances
remain low due to plenty of dry air in the low levels. Some Lake
Superior induced MVFR ceilings also remain possible later tonight
into Saturday along the North Shore and possibly to KDLH due to a
long fetch and favorable Delta-T values. However, the airmass over
and upstream of the lake remains quite dry as seen in satellite
imagery and from forecast soundings and RH fields. We just have
scattered MVFR clouds mentioned at KDLH and KHIB for now. Some of
the high resolution models also indicate snow showers may develop
along the North Shore but this seems unlikely given the dry air.

Gusty easterly winds will continue tonight then subside Saturday
afternoon and evening.


DLH  33  16  39  25 /   0   0   0  30
INL  37  18  42  24 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  24  41  27 /  10   0  20  50
HYR  40  16  44  24 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  36  12  43  24 /   0   0   0  20


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ141>143.



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