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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250207
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
907 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue Thursday with elevated fire weather
  conditions in portions of the Northland.

- Cooler temperatures in the fifties are expected Thursday in
  Cook County and coastal Lake County compared to mid to
  upper-60s in the rest of the Northland.

- Two low pressure systems back-to-back will bring rain showers
  and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend and into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today and Thursday:

Lingering dry air over the Northland today throughout portions
of our CWA will continue Thursday. Soundings show the classic
inverted V sounding and very dry air aloft in northwestern
Wisconsin. As a result, more elevated fire weather conditions
are possible with high temperatures in the 60s, low RHs, and
increasing winds throughout the day as the pressure gradient
tightens from the approaching low pressure system.

Low 1 - Friday morning to Saturday night:

A strong vertically stacked low will move into the Upper Midwest
Friday morning. Winds will increase further ahead of the low
pressure center into Friday night. Southeast winds will be 15-20
mph across the area with gusts to around 40 mph. Wind advisories
are not out of the question where the highest winds are expected,
but confidence remains low to initiate any action at this
point. Winds will briefly lower as the low passes before
increasing once again on the back side. Models are fairly in
agreement with the placement of the low moving over southern
Minnesota and moving northeast over the Northland before exiting
northeast into Canada. The speed is still in question and where
the models still start to diverge, but will likely exit
Saturday night. Thunderstorms are possible within these
showers, especially on Saturday when higher instability and
moisture will be present in northwestern Wisconsin. No severe
weather is expected, as better conditions for strong to severe
thunderstorms remains to our south and east.

Low 2 - Sunday afternoon through Monday:

A brief break in precipitation late Saturday night and Sunday
morning will be followed by a second low ahead of a deep upper
level trough. Little instability suggests that thunder, if any,
will be few and far between with this second system. The track
of this is more uncertain, but should still take a similar path
to the first with our area remaining north of the system. Global
models also differ on the speed of the system, which could
affect rainfall totals.

Rainfall totals:

Depending on the track of the two lows, precipitation totals
have spread more evenly across our southern areas this forecast
package. All of our area should see at least a half inch of
precipitation, with areas along the North Shore, south of the
Iron Range and east of the Brainerd Lakes possibly seeing 1.5
inches or more (40-60%) by next week.

Next week:

After these lows pass, global models hint at additional weak
shortwaves over the region, bringing more light precipitation.
Models really start to diverge at this point, though, so there
is no concrete timing or placement able to be obtained this far
out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail under light southeasterly winds tonight
becoming a bit gustier after 16Z Thursday to 20 knots, strongest
in north-central Minnesota.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Light winds tonight and Thursday morning will increase out of
the east Thursday afternoon as the first of two low pressure
systems approach the Northland bringing moderate rainfall. The
majority of the near shore waters will likely see wind gusts
and/or waves hazardous to small craft Friday afternoon. Winds
will fluctuate throughout the weekend as the two systems pass,
but hazardous conditions will remain possible on and off until
Monday.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...KML