Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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748
FXUS63 KDLH 230758
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
258 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Mostly dry conditions will continue through the day Tuesday as high
pressure and dry air remain entrenched across the Northland. As of
2am this morning, a band of mid-level clouds over north-central
Minnesota continues to move southeast as a weak surface trough/cold
front progresses southeastward. No precipitation was reported with
this trough as the air near the surface is very dry, per the RAP/NAM
model soundings. Clouds will be partly to mostly sunny today,
despite the trough moving in. Southwest winds will keep any lake
breeze that forms at bay. Today`s highs should be the warmest of the
entire work week, with highs in the middle to upper 60s.

A mid-level shortwave will bring more robust cold air advection
through the region this evening and overnight. The associated
surface cold front could support some light rain showers, but any
that do develop should be very light in nature due to lingering dry
air near the surface. The high-resolution mesoscale models, such as
the NAMNest, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM all indicate the most favorable
time frame for rain showers will be between 15z to 21z Tuesday as
the shortwave passes through. Increased cloud cover is likely during
this time frame, with clearing skies moving in from northwest to
southeast in the afternoon. Northerly winds will be a bit stronger
Tuesday as well due to the push of colder air, with gusts between 10
to 20 mph. Highs Tuesday will be a bit cooler compared to today due
to the increased cloud cover and cold air advection, with highs in
the lower to middle 50s, right around seasonal average.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Tuesday night finds upper level/surface ridging building into the
forecast area and lingers through Wednesday. Wednesday night finds
a positively tilted upper level trof moving toward the region. Its
associated cold front reaches northeast Minnesota by 12Z Thursday.
Moisture is limited ahead of the front. Behind the front, moisture
increases enough to warrant a small chance pop over the western third
of the region. Temps are warm enough that rain is the expected
precipitation type. The upper trof moves through Minnesota on
Thursday and pushes the cold front through northwest Wisconsin. The
GEM/GFS have more moisture and subsequently more QPF affecting the
area. The ECMWF has less moisture, resulting in less QPF.
Regardless, have chance pops. All rain is expected. The upper trof
departs northwest Wisconsin Thursday night. Enough forcing and
moisture to warrant some low chance pops. Much colder air filters
into the area with and behind the trof, leading to a transition from
rain to snow overnight. No accumulations expected. Model differences
reveal themselves with the handling of the weak surface low
following behind the departing system, and its precip potential
Friday. A blend was used which led to a dry forecast. Model
differences become quite large Friday night through Sunday and have
maintained a blend to balance out these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High pressure will gradually lose it`s grip on the Northland
weather during the TAF period. A weak front will move into
northern Minnesota during the period, and it will gradually
weaken. VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  40  55  29 /   0  10  10   0
INL  67  37  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  68  43  57  30 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  66  37  54  28 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  68  37  51  28 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF



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