Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242016
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
316 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

High pressure will build into the Northland from the northwest
tonight. It will be a clear, calm, and cold night with lows
dipping into the lower and middle 20s. Between the lack of rain
and overnight cold temperatures, maybe we will stave off more
mosquitoes.

The high pressure will shift to our south Wednesday, and
southwest return flow will bring warmer air. It should be very
dry, getting down to 15 to 25 percent relative humidity for most
areas, but thankfully not too breezy to contribute to the fire
weather threat. Winds will mostly be under 10 mph, but north-
central MN will see gusts to 15 mph. Leaned on the higher model
guidance for temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 50s in
northwest WI to the middle 60s in north-central MN. Poor Grand
Marais and Grand Portage will be stuck with flow off Lake
Superior, and temperatures in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Quiet through much of the extended with widespread precipitation
chances on Thursday and a warm up Friday through Monday.

A ridge of high pressure will be situated across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday evening, while a positively
tilted trough extends from northern Manitoba into Montana. The
ridge will quickly build into the Central Great Lakes, while the
trough digs into the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River
Valley on Thursday. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will slide
across the Dakotas, Minnesota and through much of Wisconsin on
Thursday. There is still discrepancy between the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
guidance on the strength of the wave moving through. Am thinking
that the ECMWF is on the right track with a weaker wave, and less
in the way of precipitation, which the ECMWF has consistently
shown over the past few days. In addition, this has been the case
with the past few systems that have moved through. Expect milder
minimum temperatures into Thursday morning as warm southwesterly
air advects into the region. Low will be in the 30s throughout the
region. High temperatures on Thursday range from the upper 40s in
northern Minnesota, to near 60 degrees in southern portions of
northwest Wisconsin.

Another round of precipitation is possible across the Minnesota
Arrowhead on Friday as a quick moving shortwave slides in from the
northwest. There are significant differences between the
ECWMF/GEM/GFS on the position and speed of the wave moving
through. So, have kept slight chances of precipitation across far
northeast Minnesota. Thermal profiles are also a bit different as
the GFS brings the wave further south, which would bring cooler
temperatures to the region than currently forecast. While the
ECWMF/GEM guidance keep the wave further north, which would keep
the Northland milder.

High pressure builds back in over the weekend. The ridge will
slide east of the Mississippi River Valley. This will bring strong
southerly warm air advection to the region. Highs on Sunday range
from the mid 50s along the Lake Superior Shoreline, to the low to
mid 70s inland. A cutoff low will move into the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Plains early next week. Ejecting shortwaves from
this feature may bring chances of rain showers and a few
thunderstorms. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

VFR through the forecast with gusty winds this afternoon as a
cold front slide through. There is a low probability of MVFR
ceilings moving into INL over the next few hours as a
stratocumulus deck moves southeastward. Have only hinted at this
possibility as the latest RAP guidance has a good handle on the
stratocumulus moving east of INL. Gusty winds will subside this
evening as high pressure builds in from the northwest and the
mixed layer decouples. Expect winds generally below 10 knots
through the rest of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  59  37  54 /   0   0   0  20
INL  25  64  38  49 /   0   0  30  30
BRD  28  62  38  56 /   0   0  10  30
HYR  26  58  36  59 /   0   0   0  30
ASX  27  58  34  56 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL



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