Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240541 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1241 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Update for new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Clouds were on the increase this afternoon across the forecast
area ahead of the system currently affecting the Dakotas into
western Minnesota. High pressure near Hudson Bay was advecting dry
air into the region along with an easterly flow off of Lake
Superior. This combination was effectively preventing any low and
mid clouds from the Dakotas system from moving into the area. Some
low stratus was attempting to get organized over the Twin Ports
harbor area. However, these clouds have been dissipating as soon
as they reach shore.

Upper level ridging will move over the region tonight, while the
high pressure meanders around northern Ontario. These factors will
work in concert to keep the precipitation associated with the
Dakotas system from having much of an impact on the western edge
of the forecast area. Have already adjusted the pops to reflect
this trend and now only expect the light snow to affect the
western edge of Cass County. With minimal QPF, this led to lower
snow amounts and currently only have less than a half inch of
accumulation expected. Farther east, the high pressure will result
in a dry forecast and a mostly cloudy sky.

While the upper ridging largely remains over the region on
Saturday, some vorticity moves through southern Minnesota. Its
proximity to the region warranted keeping a small pop over
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties in the early morning hours.
The vorticity departs by mid morning with the ridging aloft, and
at the surface, taking control for the rest of Saturday. The cool
easterly flow continues and will keep max temps near to slightly
below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The latter half of the weekend looks dry and mild. High pressure
over eastern Canada will still dominate the Great Lakes on Sunday.
The Northland will have breezy south-southeast return flow and
increasing cloud cover from the west. Sunday`s highs will be in
the lower 40s.

A Colorado low will eject into the Central Plains Sunday night
and Monday, with low pressure stretching from the Southern Plains
to Canada. Overall, this does not look like a particularly
organized system due to multiple upper waves and a lack of
dominant wave. It will be bringing moderate forcing for ascent to
generate a period of light to moderate precipitation for the
Northland early next week. The mild weather will continue for
Monday and Tuesday, and temperatures aloft will be fairly warm, so
anticipate mostly rain with wet or melting snow. Snow
accumulation will likely be quite light.

The middle of the week will likely be followed by a period of
cooler weather and high pressure. There might be a weak Canadian
Clipper that cuts across southern Canada or as far south as the
US/Canada border area, which could bring light rain and snow to
northern Minnesota.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

As of late evening, surface low pressure was centered in central
Kansas with high pressure over northern Ontario. A dry easterly
flow was occurring out of the high and has kept the Northland dry
through the evening. VFR conditions were occurring and are
expected for most areas through the period. Some light snow is
possible from KBRD to KXVG and points west tonight but chances
remain low due to plenty of dry air in the low levels. Some Lake
Superior induced MVFR ceilings also remain possible later tonight
into Saturday along the North Shore and possibly to KDLH due to a
long fetch and favorable Delta-T values. However, the airmass over
and upstream of the lake remains quite dry as seen in satellite
imagery and from forecast soundings and RH fields. We just have
scattered MVFR clouds mentioned at KDLH and KHIB for now. Some of
the high resolution models also indicate snow showers may develop
along the North Shore but this seems unlikely given the dry air.

Gusty easterly winds will continue tonight then subside Saturday
afternoon and evening.


DLH  19  33  22  40 /   0   0   0   0
INL  18  38  21  42 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  24  38  25  41 /  20  20   0  10
HYR  20  40  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  18  36  20  43 /   0   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ141>143.



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Melde is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.