Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 222327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread freeze will occur across the region tonight.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Sunday
  through Monday. Chances for severe weather remain low.

- Windy conditions will occur Sunday and Monday.

- Much colder weather is expected early next week, with multiple
  nights of sub-freezing temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Objective 12z upper-air analysis depicts a broad but fairly
low-amplitude trough across the central U.S., with a more potent
vorticity maximum in the Upper Midwest (which led to some
accumulating snows in the northern Plains southeastward into
eastern Iowa and northern Illinois last night and today).
Upstream ridging was moving into the Intermountain West, with a
deep trough off the Pacific Coast. In the low levels, a cold
front moved through the region today, with breezy north winds
and strong cold advection in its wake.

The pattern is expected to be progressive across the U.S. for
the next several days, leading to a roller-coaster forecast. Up
first, a cold night is expected as the aforementioned breezy
winds ease quickly and sky cover gradually improves. Forecast
lows have trended a little warmer in the past 24 hours for
tonight, owing to increased uncertainty with the reduction in
cloud cover (particularly through the first half of the night)
and the elevated winds this evening. Models tend to be biased on
the cold side in these situations. Nevertheless, given the
strength of the cold advection, would expect overnight lows to
be near or below freezing in most of the CWA. Per coordination
with surrounding offices, held off on issuing freeze products
given the somewhat more marginal nature of the forecast. We
continue to encourage the protection of sensitive vegetation
tonight, as probabilities remain quite high (> 80 percent) that
temperatures will be below freezing for a few hours around
daybreak tomorrow morning.

Despite the approach of ridging on Saturday, recovery with high
temperatures will be stunted by antecedent northeast winds (and
some continued cold advection), though certainly lighter than
those seen today. Forecast highs will be several degrees below
seasonal averages. However, winds will become more southeasterly
with time, with warm/moist advection quickly ensuing by Saturday
evening. Lows Saturday night will be much warmer and well above
freezing.

Models continue to depict rapid cyclogenesis in the lee of the
Rockies Saturday night and Sunday, leading to widespread
precipitation in the central U.S. Sunday and Monday.
Convection-allowing models depict multiple rounds of convection
affecting the area (especially the north and west) Sunday and
Sunday night. However, instability forecasts remain
unimpressive, and the timing of the trough continues to remain
unfavorable for the geographical placement of the most vigorous
convection in the immediate warm sector of the cyclone. Instead,
this placement looks to be more in central Kansas southward,
with storms weakening via nocturnal stabilization Sunday night
as they move northeastward into the region. This said, very
strong winds tied to the low-level jet will be in place across
the region, so it will not take much negative buoyancy to
generate decent wind gusts with any particularly vigorous storm.
By Monday, the synoptic dry slot will likely shift into the
region, with any convection developing immediately downstream
(farther and farther east in our forecast area). However,
instability will remain marginal, and severe convection remains
unlikely in our region.

Two noteworthy forecast items remain with this system for our
area. First, QPF continues to lower with subsequent model runs.
A few days ago, widespread 1+" totals were depicted in much of
the CWA. Now, the forecast keeps most areas under a half inch,
and most areas southeast of I-35 under a third of an inch.
Wetting rains would be most welcome, so this trend is not
particularly desirable. The second item of note is that
synoptic-scale winds continue to look rather stout, with
probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph remaining well
above 70 percent in most of the region Sunday afternoon through
most of Monday. Advisory products may be required should
forecast magnitudes hold.

In the wake of the strong system late this weekend into Monday,
another sharp cooldown is expected Monday night through the
middle of the week, with multiple nights of sub-freezing
temperatures expected across the region. Tuesday night looks
particularly cold, with upper teens to mid 20s expected region-
wide. Not welcome news given the green-up ongoing across the
CWA.

As per usual this year so far, the cold spell will be short-
lived, with temperatures near to above seasonal averages by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

MVFR conditions persist across area terminals this evening.
Gusty north winds also continue, gusting 20 to 25 kts at times.
As surface high pressure settles southward across the region
through the early morning, expect winds to gradually decrease
and shift more northeast after 03Z. MVFR ceilings are expected
to persist through the early morning hours, before gradually
improving through sunrise. Anticipate the return to VFR after 13
to 14Z. Winds will remain light, picking up only slightly
through late in the period, becoming more east and southeast
with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...Kurtz


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