Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262349
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
549 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Scattered rain and snow showers expected today into the evening
will move out of the area tonight. A warm up will quickly occur
with 5 to 10 degrees of warming through Thursday when the area
will be back to normal or slightly above for this time of the
year. The next weather system will move into the area Sunday with
winds and dust being the main impact. Rain and winds will move
into the area Sunday night into Monday with light accumulations
expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Main impacts today will be from the scattered rain and snow
showers pushing through the area associated with a mid level
trough.There is just enough SBCAPE to allow a scattering of
storms, but not real boundary to focus on, leading to the shotgun
appearance on radar. In the higher elevations these showers could
come with bursts of snow and temporary whiteout conditions, so
driving could be difficult for short periods. The spotty nature of
these storms will make snowfall accumulations difficult, but it
won`t take but a few in the same spot to quickly get 2-4",
especially above 7500ft where the ground is below freezing which
is what led us to issue the short fused winter advisory to account
for these bursts of snow and lower visibility.The lowlands may
experience brief downpours and periods of graupel looking at the
soundings and cold pocket aloft. This could cause minor issues if
the graupel starts to accumulate for a short period.
The long wave trough will quickly push east, allowing a strong
ridge to build into the area Wednesday. The main impact from this
feature will be the quick warm up that will occur. We will gain
5-8 degrees a day through Friday when highs in the lowlands get
back into the lower 80s which will be slightly above average.
Winds look to remain relatively light for this time of the year.
The pattern shifts quickly over the weekend with a deep low
digging into southern California. This low will bring higher winds
on Saturday, but still looking sub-advisory level. Sunday will be
the day to watch for another wind/dust event. NBM probabilities
are still showing the 75th percentile (which has verified well
with our recent wind storms) at advisory level with warning level
on the eastern slopes. The deterministic models are not as
bullish, so we will have to watch this trend going into the end of
the week. The pacific front will push through Monday which will
provide a chance for showers and windy conditions to continue.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Generally VFR conditions, but not without some brief periods of
potential MVFR conditions due to convective activity across the
region through 03-05Z. A vigorous upper level disturbance, with
just enough moisture, is passing over the region with scattered
SHRA and a even ISOLD TSRA. KELP is most likely to be impacted
with some lowering of clouds, and possibly a CIG, along with brief
rain that could limit VSBY to 1-3 SM. Potential for pcpn looks to
end btwn 03-05Z. Otherwise winds W to WNW 15-25kts with gusts
30-35kts through 03Z...then decreasing to 10-15kts with gusts
15-22kts. Skies will begin to clear aft 03Z. Winds tomorrow, aft
18Z from WNW in the 15-25kt range.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Fire weather conditions look to remain unfavorable through
Thursday with either the RH being high or the winds being low
during the period. Friday the winds may pick up enough with
marginally low RH to cause some elevated risk in the Gila region.
The lowlands will have the RH, but not the winds for any real
concerns. All the ingredients do possibly set up for a fire risk
day Sunday when the stronger winds match up with the lower RH
values, mainly west of the Rio Grande.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 43 69 44 80 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 36 61 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 37 69 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 31 62 36 73 / 20 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 19 36 24 49 / 40 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 34 63 37 73 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 28 55 35 66 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 33 66 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 31 62 34 75 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 39 67 44 78 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 33 65 32 79 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 36 67 37 82 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 33 60 39 72 / 10 0 0 0
Fabens 38 67 40 82 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 36 65 38 77 / 10 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 41 66 43 76 / 10 0 0 0
Jornada Range 32 65 34 74 / 10 0 0 0
Hatch 33 67 34 77 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 37 65 39 76 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 33 63 36 74 / 10 0 0 0
Mayhill 27 51 29 64 / 30 0 0 0
Mescalero 23 49 28 60 / 30 0 0 0
Timberon 22 49 27 62 / 20 0 0 0
Winston 28 55 31 67 / 20 0 0 0
Hillsboro 31 62 35 72 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 31 63 33 73 / 10 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 22 54 28 64 / 20 0 0 0
Hurley 28 60 32 70 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 29 62 34 72 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 29 58 34 67 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 29 60 36 69 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 31 64 34 77 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 32 64 36 77 / 10 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 32 65 37 77 / 10 0 0 0
Cloverdale 32 60 39 71 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-
426.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird