000
FNUS74 KEPZ 251228
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
628 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11AM
TO 9PM. High temperatures in the middle 60s, 5 to 10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with Min RH values in the middle to upper teens. Winds light and
drainage flow driven through mid morning, becoming southwest/west during the
late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will be 20 to 30 mph with wind gusts
of 35 to 45 mph this afternoon and evening. Excellent mixing will promote
Excellent smoke ventilation rates. Overnight recoveries around 60 percent with
low temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Again, RED FLAG WARNING
IN EFFECT TODAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63 to 66.
Min humidity........15-19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds of 2 to 7 mph during the morning.
Shifting southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts
                    to around 25 to 30 mph during the late morning.
Winds further increase out of the west at 20 to 30
                    mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Below 500 ft AGL during the early morning, quickly
increasing after 9 AM to around 9000 to 10000 ft AGL
during the afternoon hours.Heights quickly decrease
during the evening hours.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph increasing to southwest 35
                    to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (63800 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (352200 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........5      0      0      2      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     58     62     63     62     61
RH..............34     26     21     21     19     22
20 ft wind......N 4    W 8    SW 15  SW 20  W 25   W 25
20 ft wind gust.7      14     25     40     45     40
Mix hgt (ft)....500    3500   9500   9500   9600   9600
Transport wind..W 15   W 15   SW 37  SW 37  W 39   W 39
Haines index....4      3      2      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14     44     352    352    353    353
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 to 35 mph during the evening. Quickly
decreasing during the late evening and overnight
timeframe to 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 21 to 30 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 18 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (238600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (10300 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      6      3      3      3      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............59     53     49     47     45     44
RH..............27     35     42     47     53     55
20 ft wind......W 22   W 18   W 13   NW 10  NW 10  NW 10
20 ft wind gust.32     28     23     20     18     18
Mix hgt (ft)....8000   1000   600    600    600    600
Transport wind..W 30   W 30   NW 21  NW 21  NW 18  NW 18
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..239    30     11     11     10     10
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........18-22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 16 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph increasing to around 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 to 35 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 25 mph increasing to around 33 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (53700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (155500 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........6         1         3         8
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............42        52        59        63
RH..............60        44        29        22
20 FT wind......NW 10G21  W 12G26   W 16G26   W 21G32
Mix hgt (ft)....3000      3000      6400      8300
Transport wind..W 17      W 17      W 25      W 33
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..54        54        156       255
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. West
winds around 22 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest
winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...FEMO t
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.11/EPZ
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov