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000
FXUS62 KFFC 121121
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
721 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

As the morning begins, the axis of a longwave trough covering much
of the eastern CONUS has cleared Georgia to the east. As a low
pressure system associated with the trough begins to move
northeastward into Canada, another cold front has moved through the
forecast area. Northwesterly flow behind this front will usher in a
cooler and drier airmass, which will persist through the short term
period. Low temperatures this morning will range from the mid 40s to
low 50s. Skies are expected to become clear across the majority of
the forecast area by mid morning, with the exception of far
northeast Georgia, where some scattered to broken clouds may linger
through much of the day. With the cool and dry airmass settling in
over the forecast area, high temperatures this afternoon will range
from 4-8 degrees below climatological normals, in the mid to upper
60s in north Georgia and low to mid 70s in central Georgia. Higher
elevations in far northeast Georgia could struggle to get out of the
50s, especially where cloud ceilings linger.

Relative humidity values are will range from 25-35 percent across
the area this afternoon, with the lowest values in central Georgia.
Some locations may briefly drop below 25 percent for an hour or two
this afternoon, but not for long enough to warrant a Fire Danger
Statement at this time. A tight pressure gradient over much of
Georgia, combined with strong daytime mixing, will lead to gusty
winds. Frequent wind gusts up to 30 kts will be possible this
afternoon, particularly in portions of northeast Georgia, warranting
a Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM today. Breezy winds and plenty of
sunshine will help dry out fine fuels over the course of the day.

Winds will diminish overnight, with gusts coming to an end after
midnight, as upper level ridging approaches from the west and high
pressure settles in over the Southeast. Lighter winds will allow for
better radiational cooling overnight into Saturday morning, with
lows forecast to be in the mid 40s across the majority of the area.
With increasing 1000-500 mb heights as the ridge builds into the
region, a warming trend will begin during the daytime on Saturday.
With the exception of far northeast Georgia (which will rise into
the 60s), highs will increase into the mid to upper 70s across the
area. With the airmass remaining dry, in combination with rising
temperatures and drying fuels, a Fire Danger Statement may be needed
on Friday.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

At a glance:

    - Ridging supports unseasonably warm and dry conditions

As we enter the long term on Sunday, surface high pressure and low
amplitude mid-level ridging begin to overspread much of ECONUS.
Impressive agreement among global models (and ensembles) through day
6/Wednesday suggests little in the way of a pattern change for
north and central Georgia. Over the course of several days of
subsidence -- with effectively zero precipitation chances until
at least Wednesday -- expect our highs to soar into the mid-to-
upper 80s areawide (as much as 10-15 degrees above average for
mid- April) for each day through next Thursday. Lows will also be
quite warm, in the upper-50s to 60s. Will need to keep an eye on
critical thresholds as far as fire weather is concerned, as we
will likely be balancing right on the knife`s edge after multiple
days of drying.

Very low end precipitation chances return Wednesday for areas north
of I-20 associated with an approaching front that pilfers out and
relinquishes much of its moisture before breaching the state
line. If any rain falls, totals will be near negligible -- a tenth
of an inch or less.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period at all TAF sites.
Skies will be clear across the majority of the area today, with the
exception of broken mid-level clouds in far northeast Georgia. Winds
will be W to NW through the period. Wind speeds will start the
morning around 10-13 kts, increasing to 13-15 kts with gusts up to
25 kts by 14Z and up to 18-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts by 17Z
and through the afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish this evening
after sunset, with gusts ending shortly after midnight

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          47  75  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         48  74  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     42  67  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    44  75  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        46  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     49  73  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           47  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            43  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  46  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         50  77  53  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
GAZ006>009-014>016-022>025-027-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...King