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000
FXUS62 KFFC 111412
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1012 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024



.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Surface low pressure will move through the CWA today and drag a
front through. In addition, a strong mid level trough will move
through. A line of shra associated with the front has developed
across central AL and will move east today. Have tweaked pops a
bit to reflect current conditions and to account for the weak line
back in AL. Thunder potential remains low, but with the upper low
moving across, steepening lapse rates may help just enough for
isold thunder.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Today:

A large upper level trough was generating widespread rainfall from
the Florida Panhandle to the southern Great Lake this morning.
The heaviest rainfall in our area (over east central Georgia) was
being driven by a deep fetch of moisture streaming off the Gulf
and convection in the Florida Panhandle. As the morning progress
this batch of consistent moderate to heavy rain should shift
eastward and out of Georgia. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms were also ongoing with the core of the upper level
trough over the Tennessee Valley this morning. These showers
continue to move into Georgia (primarily northern Georgia) this
afternoon as the core of the upper level trough lifts towards the
Ohio Valley. With this in mind we have kept rainfall chances of
20-70% in the forecast through early evening. Any rainfall should
dissipate quickly after sunset, as diurnal heating ends and the
trough axis shifts into the Carolinas.

Gusty southwest to west winds should develop in the region today
as the trough moves through. The strongest gusts should coincide
with a peak in diurnal heating and boundary layer mixing this
afternoon. For the majority of the region peak gusts near 35 mph
are expected. Thus a Wind Advisory has been issued for most of the
state. Isolated higher gusts, near 45 mph, may occur along the
mountain ridgelines in northern Georgia.

Temperatures today should be dictated by the passage of a
secondary cold front and push of cooler air this afternoon. This
should combine with widespread cloud cover and rainfall to limit
high temperatures in northwest Georgia to the upper 60s or lower
70s. In east central Georgia less cloud cover and a later arrive
of the stronger CAA should allow temperatures to climb into the
mid to upper 70s this afternoon.

Tonight and Friday:

Upper level troughing will remain in place over the Eastern US
tonight and Friday. Drier air and subsidence on the back side of
the trough should help bring any lingering precipitation to an
end this evening, and allow skies to clear. On Friday afternoon
minimum relative humidity values should dip into the 25 to 30%
range. Despite the low relative humidity, recent rainfall and
greener vegetation should keep our 10 hour fuels from drying out
to quickly. Thus a Fire Danger Statement should not be needed
Friday afternoon (chance of issuance < 5%). CAA on the back side
of the trough should keep temperatures mild (3-8 degrees below
average) on Friday. Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be
anticipated.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

This period will feature dry weather and a warming trend that
should push high temperatures into the mid 80s by next Monday. On
a synoptic scale these trends will be driven by the departure of
the upper level trough this weekend, and the emergence of upper
level ridging early next week. Guidance from the EPS and GEFS
strongly supports this pattern shift, with 95% of their respective
members keeping the region dry through next Wednesday. Even the
rebellious members who generate precipitation only spit out a
couple of hundredths on Wednesday. Due to these strong trends in
the ensemble guidance, forecast confidence in dry weather and
warmer temperatures is high.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Widespread LIFR to MVFR conditions (ceilings 400-2500 ft AGL)
should gradually become a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions
(ceilings 2500-6500 ft AGL) by 17Z today. A gradual reduction in
rain shower and isolated thunderstorm activity should accompany
these ceiling increases. Additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms should move in form the west after 20Z today. This
activity may be accompanied by a IFR or MVFR conditions (ceilings
700-3000 ft AGL) between 20Z today and 06Z Friday. Gusty southwest
to west winds (peak gusts near 30 kt) will occur through 03Z
Friday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the KATL TAF overall.
High confidence in the visibility and wind forecasts.
Moderate confidence  in the ceiling and precipitation forecasts.
Low confidence in thunderstorms between 21Z today and 04Z Friday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          50  68  46  75 /  30   0   0   0
Atlanta         50  67  48  75 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     44  60  43  69 /  50  10   0   0
Cartersville    47  67  43  76 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        51  71  46  79 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     50  66  47  74 /  30   0   0   0
Macon           52  71  47  77 /  20   0   0   0
Rome            47  68  43  77 /  20   0   0   0
Peachtree City  49  68  45  77 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         54  73  49  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright