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000
FXUS62 KFFC 110551
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Primary forecast issue for the day will be the potential for
thunderstorms and severe weather, including flash flooding, across
southern portions of the CWA this evening and into the overnight
hours.

Strong/severe line of thunderstorms moving east along the Gulf Coast
this afternoon. The models have struggled with this system from run
to run, especially the track of the system. This initial system may
bypass much of the CWA to the south, but the SW corner of the outlook
area would have the best chances from seeing any convective impacts
from the line.

The hi-res models continue to fire shra/tsra on the backside of any
initial line that moves through during the evening in association
with strong mid level energy/trough. This secondary system may end up
evolving into another broken line of strong/potentially severe
thunderstorms overnight and into early Thursday morning. The primary
convective severe hazards will be damaging wind gusts and brief
tornadoes.

The secondary area of convection likely to develop with the
trough/strong shortwave energy will likely impact areas well north
of the Columbus to Macon line overnight. The convective mode may be
a bit more messy than down south, with widespread showers with
embedded thunder.

Another potential hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of
the southern CWA. With repeated convective systems moving across,
each one producing locally heavy rainfall, have gone ahead and
issued a Flood Watch for the potential for flash flooding. For areas
mostly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon and along
and west of I-75. Widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is likely
with some locally higher amounts up to 5 inches possible.

Winds are expected to become gusty behind the front later Thursday
into Thursday night. The pressure gradient will tighten as a
deepening low pressure system moves from the Lower Mississippi River
Valley into the Ohio Valley tonight and early Thursday.  Will hold
off issuing a Wind Advisory for now, but it may need to be
considered on later shifts.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The extended starts off dry as high pressure is building into the
Southeastern U.S. Fri morning. The pressure gradient is very tight
over the area so expecting winds to be fairly strong Friday.
Sustained winds Fri afternoon will be in the 15-25 mph range (The
strongest winds will be over NE GA) with Gust in the 25 to 45mph
range. Winds diminish Fri night as the High pressure ridge becomes
centered over AL/GA by daybreak Sat. This ridge will continue to
keep North and Central GA dry through Day 7.

Saturday will start our temperature rebound as upper level flow
becomes more zonal. By Monday we`re going to see highs in the mid
80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. All in all
expecting a nice dry weekend and next week.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The weather will remain unsettled in the region through 14z, with
a widespread rain showers and a mix of IFR and MVFR conditions
(ceilings 500 to 2000 ft AGL and visibility 3 to 6 SM). Scattered
rain showers will occur after 14Z, with a peak in activy expected
between 20Z today and 00Z Friday. Ceilings should rise to VFR
after 17Z, but may fall back into the MVFR range after 20Z today.
Southeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible in eastern
and central Georgia through 11Z today. Southwest winds will
develop between 13Z and 17Z today, gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range
are expected.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation, ceiling and visibility
forecasts.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  69  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         51  68  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     45  61  44  70 /  20  10   0   0
Cartersville    48  68  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        52  73  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     50  67  49  75 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           52  73  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            49  69  44  78 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  49  70  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         55  74  51  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>084-089>095.

Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ069-072-078>083-
089>096-102>109.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Albright