Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211439
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

A few light rain showers/sprinkles have continued to move into the
southern CWA this morning. Not much is reaching the ground, but
continued some isolated to scattered mention for much of the day
in that area as the CAMs models continue to show some
dissipation and redevelopment in that area under the influence of
the weak upper low. Will continue to keep the highs we have
going, mid to upper 70s in the north to upper 60s in the southeast
where there is cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Water vapor loop indicated a mid level trough located over the IA/NE
border. Trough will move into southern MN today, then to the east
thereafter. Low level moisture will return to the southern Red River
Valley today. Area radar indicated rain over southwest MN and was
moving north. Expect very light rain/sprinkles to move into the
southern zones later this morning. Most of the light precip should
move east out the area by this afternoon.

With low level moisture returning north will not go as cold
tonight...however the northeast zones should be the coldest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Generally 500mb ridging remains over the FA on Tuesday into early
Tuesday evening. Therefore continue to expect plenty of sun, fairly
light south winds, and mild highs for Tuesday. The pattern begins to
shift to southwest flow aloft late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
which means the start of a period of more unsettled weather. Timing
the onset of any pcpn remains the main challenge, with the
ECMWF/Canadian models a little slower to bring in any pcpn. The
ECMWF/Canadian actually hold off any pcpn until Wednesday night.
Previous forecast continuity blends in the GFS/NAM, which do bring
in some low pcpn chances as early as Tuesday night.

So not very good agreement on how soon any light pcpn will move into
the FA Tuesday night into Wednesday, but either way it would be
minimal amounts. Chances look a little better by Wednesday night.
SPC has portions of the FA in a marginal risk, mentioning warm
advection and the low level jet kicking in by Wednesday night.
For Thursday to Saturday, a 500mb low will track through the
Northern Plains, keeping it unsettled. Better chances for pcpn may
be during peak heating, settling down somewhat at night. Ridging
returns by Sunday, ending the threat for any additional pcpn.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

VFR conditions were across the area. Satellite indicated clouds were
moving into the southern Red River Valley. Expect mostly VFR
conditions for today except for the southern Red River Valley. MVFR
conditions will move into the southern zones by mid to late morning.
Only expected to affect the southern tier counties. THE MVFR
condition may move farther north tonight along the Red river and
east into northwest MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JH



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