Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270046
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
746 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter weather advisory continues for our eastern and southern
  counties with minor impacts from light falling and blowing
  snow. Should see some improvement tonight as winds start to
  drop.

- Snow showers will continue into tomorrow across portions of
  northwestern Minnesota, bringing an additional few inches of
  accumulating snow and periodic low visibilities. Minor winter
  travel impacts will return.

- There is a low chance (20 percent) for minor impacts due to
  snow and freezing rain on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Collab with WFO Duluth and extended winter wx advisory for
Roseau, Lake of the Woods and Beltrami counties thru 15z Wed.
This area is forecast to receive snow much of that time as
moiture wraps back around an upper low as they merge near
Thunder Bay Ontario. Snowfall forecasts of 1-4 inches in that
area. Otherwise scattered flurries and snow showers this evening
back into the Red River valley will diminish overnight. Winds
slowly diminishing so impacts from blowing/drifting snow will
ease. Thus the winter wx advisory for rest of NW/WC MN was
allowed to expire at 00z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Southern branch upper wave continues to lift through the upper
midwest, with the main northern branch trough digging into ND.
Still getting quite a few bands of light snow wrapping around
the backside of the system and into our MN counties, with some
snow shower activity as far west as the Red River Valley with
some weak low level instability and saturation. With the light
snow and strong winds still gusting to 40 mph, will continue to
keep the advisory going through at least 00Z and will see what
happens after. Do expect some improvement tonight as we lose
instability and winds begin to drop, but it may be slower than
originally anticipated.

The northern branch low will move into MN tonight and towards
Lake Superior by Wednesday. With cyclonic flow aloft, there is
plenty of ensemble agreement on continued snow shower activity
over our northwestern MN counties, with some more accumulating
snow possible near Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes. The NBM has
over 70 percent chance of and inch or more in our northwest, and
even a 40 percent chance for 3 inches or more. Winds will be
less than today but still pretty breezy, with some minor winter
impacts due to falling and blowing snow likely. Whether we
extend or reissue to advisory or convert over to SPS will be a
matter of forecaster discretion, but at this point it seems
that nothing will be worse that what we are seeing right now and
a ramp up in messaging is not needed.

Thursday should be briefly quiet as upper ridging moves in
between system. Another shortwave coming over the top of the
ridge will bring some potential winter impacts for Friday, with
ensembles showing a signal for some mixed precipitation. Around
a 20 percent chance for some freezing rain, not high, but any
kind of ice can cause problems so will have to keep an eye on
it. Another lull on Saturday before a fast moving shortwave on
Sunday could bring some more light precipitation, although
predictability is pretty low. Some signs of a drier pattern and
more moderating temperatures as we head into the work week by
the ensemble mean.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Convective snow showers and cloud streamers over the Red River
valley into the evening and to some degree will continue into
Wed AM but idea will be more scattered clouds after sunset. MVFR
in light snow or clouds in NW MN into Wed. Winds still gusty esp
in the valley.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ005-
     006-009-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Riddle


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