Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
957 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Issued at 951 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Updated sky grids to reflect clouds moving out of the Lake of the
Woods region. Visible satellite shows a few low to mid level
clouds trying to develop along the Canadian border, so will be
watching this area for any further increases in cloud cover
through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs. Otherwise, no
updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Primary forecast challenge will be potential for third consecutive
day of record maximum temperatures with westerly flow setting up and
an upper ridge crossing forecast area today.  Sfc low over SW
Ontario will provide some increased cloud cover over Lake of the
Woods as well as weak cyclonic flow over the lake potentially
causing an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.  Remainder of area will
be dry through at least midnight.

Daytime highs will once again linger around the 90 mark on
average...with warmest temperatures ranging from the mid 80s in the
cloudier the mid 90s across the southern valley.
Current forecast indicates a forecast high of 94 will break the 1931
record of 93 for Fargo...a forecast high of 91 will break the 1931
record of 89 for the Grand Forks airport...however may fall short of
the 1931 record of 92 for the NWS office in Grand Forks, forecast to
reach a high of 91.

The first of a series of waves that will enter the Dakotas in the
Sun to Wed timeframe will move into cntrl ND tonight as an upper low
over cntrl CA begins to move into the AZ/NV/UT area...sliding the
upper ridge further east and transitioning the northern tier into a
SW flow aloft pattern.  Best chances of any nocturnal storms remain
west of the CWA although regions between the BIS boundary and a
Devils Lake to Valley City line may see some isold activity near
sunrise Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Sunday-Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft develops by Sunday.
Anticipate multiple shortwaves to affect the region (ejecting from
the mean western CONUS trough), with the main upper level energy
propagating through the region at some point Wednesday. Not
anticipating all day synoptic type rains, but do expect multiple
rounds of showers and storms. Thinking most areas will receive
something at some point, although predictability is too low to say
when and where. Severe thunderstorm potential will exist, especially
early Monday into Tuesday as deep layer shear increases. Best
potential for severe storms likely on Monday when guidance indicates
strongest instability and shear combination.

Thursday-Friday...The pattern reloads during this period with upper
ridging leading to generally quiet weather. Temperatures will be
much cooler and more toward normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018





SHORT TERM...Speicher
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