Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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348
FXUS63 KFGF 190858
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
358 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Water vapor loop showed an upper level trough over southern MAN and
another trough over northern MN. MN trough has increased winds
across the area as cooler/drier air moves into the area.

Radar indicated a few showers remaining over the far northeast zones
and will continue to shift east this morning.

East west cross section indicated a fair amount of drying aloft
today. Also model soundings indicate good mixing for today with
potential to mix down up to 25 knots. Decreased dewpoints for the
afternoon. Expect RHs to get into the upper twenties for this
afternoon.

Surface high pressure forecast to shift into the eastern Red River
Valley by 12Z Sun. Lowered temps for the eastern zones for Sat
night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This period starts off with cool high pressure over the region, from
ND east to Lake Superior. An upper level ridge will exist over the
region as well. But the light winds and sunny skies will help
produce a stellar day on Sunday as highs will be generally in the
low 70s. The high moves off to the east on Monday...with upper flow
becoming more zonal. But expect another nice day as highs will be in
the mid 70s with a southerly breeze and sunny skies once again.

On Tuesday, an upper wave will approach from the northwest...and
moisture increases ahead of this feature resulting in some weak
instability over ND. A few thunderstorms appear to be possible
Tuesday afternoon/evening but the severe risk looks limited at this
time. On Wednesday...an upper level low that`s been touring the
western U.S. since Monday will open up and move into Montana. Some
energy may drift through the Dakotas Wed/Wed night...bringing a few
showers and thunderstorms to the area. The upper wave and associated
surface low will slowly move through the Northern Plains on Thu and
Fri...keeping thunderstorms in the forecast both days. Temps for Wed-
Fri look to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. So, after a cool dry
start to the week, it appears to finish wetter and warmer. With the
thunderstorms looking to be a fair bet Thu/Fri...the risk of a few
severe thunderstorms looks possible as well given the moderate shear
and cape possible. Still too far out to focus on the details,
however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Showers are transitioning eastward in northwest MN and should be
east of the region by sunrise. Patchy fog or even drizzle is
occuring early in the TAF period at KFAR, but should end within
the first hour or two of the TAFs. Additional patchy fog can`t be
ruled out Saturday morning due to recent rainfall at most
locations, but confidence is low and guidance currently doesn`t
support this likely due to lingering winds 10kt or higher and
drier air starting to work south. IFR cigs should transition
eastward as well and VFR should return in ND (before 12Z) and
northwest MN (12-15Z).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...DJR



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