142
FXUS63 KFGF 290725
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region
  today through the entire week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The regional radar loop shows the first band of rainfall lifting
north-northwest through the FA, but mainly north of the highway
200 corridor. Then there is a second little area approaching the
southern FA. In between these two areas, there is a break. The
first band has been pretty slow moving north, with precipitation
amounts slightly lower than anticipated. As of early this
morning, there still hasn`t been any rain yet along the
Canadian border, possibly due to the drier east-northeast flow
(there is still at least a 10 degree temperature/dewpoint
spread across southwest Ontario). Therefore, there is still not
even a ceiling below 12,000 feet showing up around the Lake of
the Woods region. The highest precipitation totals have been
over west central Minnesota, where between 0.50 and 0.75 inches
have fallen.

Some light precipitation should eventually move into the Lake of
the Woods region, and there is still a potential for a little
wet snow to mix in for areas along and north of highway 2. The
precipitation is not steady enough to produce much for snow
accumulation. With road temperatures mild, no impacts are
expected even it does produce a dusting of snow. So the first
band of precipitation along and north of highway 2 will
continue to push out of the FA and into southern Canada after
sunrise, while the area just to the south of the FA will pivot
up into the FA and continue mainly east of the Red River Valley,
before diminishing by later afternoon.

Brief 500mb ridging moves in tonight, which will provide a
short window with no rain. Then the next wave will eject
eastward through the FA mainly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. The best moisture and instability seem to be just to the
south of this FA, closer to the surface low that looks to set up
from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota. For this
FA, another round of rainfall is anticipated, with the NBM
showing around a 70 percent probability for amounts greater than
a quarter of inch. Some higher amounts are possible, with
probabilities for over a half inch around 50 percent, mainly
along and east of the Valley. These ranges seem to match pretty
well with the past couple of events. More energy ejects out of
the Central Plains into the Northern Plains Thursday through
Friday, bringing another widespread wetting rain. There is more
uncertainty with this round, so the NBM probabilities seem
pretty low yet. However, amounts could again be similar to what
the area has been getting (good chance of a quarter of an inch,
with higher amounts possible). The uncertainty continues into
the upcoming weekend, but chances for rain continue, and if it
stays cloudy, it would continue to be cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Widespread light rain continues through the overnight period,
with a rain snow mix possible around sunrise Monday. Little to
no impact is expected from snowfall through the TAF period.
Ceilings are expected to fall into IFR territory by early Monday
morning, along with the possibility of visibility reduction due
to light snow or mist. Temperatures and dew points will fall
gradually overnight, with lows generally falling into the lower
30s.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Lynch