Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221741
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1241 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Some cumulus fields have developed over the northern forecast
area, so bumped up clouds a bit. Temperatures are already in the
mid 70s so think we will still hit our projected highs in the
upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Fog looks like the main forecast challenge early on. Currently
have thicker fog to the south of the FA, but Gwinner is reporting
a visibility of less than a quarter mile as well. Web cams down in
that area show lower visibilities, but hard to tell exactly how
low. Other METARs around that area are showing visibilities much
higher, so at this point plan on monitoring to see if dense fog
shows up at more than one point. Looking further ahead into
today, southerly flow remains at the surface. Once the fog
erodes, cloud cover should hold across the southern Red River
Valley into west central Minnesota, which should also hold down
temperatures somewhat today. Moisture lingers over the area into
tonight, actually expanding a little further northward. For that
reason, there may be some fog around again tonight, but confidence
is not high enough to mention at this point. Models have delayed
the onset of any light precipitation to beyond the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Wednesday to Friday...Warm advection precip is expected for Wed
afternoon and Wed night. some severe storms will be possible
mainly west and south. Upper level trough will move into northwest
ND/eastern MT/southern SASK on Thu. Another round of severe
storms will be possible over much of the area.

Saturday to Tuesday...Upper air pattern weakens a bit through the
period. Long wave ridge over western North America shifts into
central North America. Long wave trough remains over northeast
Canada through the period.

High temperatures were increased one to three degrees for Fri,
increased zero to two degrees for Sat and Mon, and no change for
Sun from yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

All sites are VFR and will remain so throughout the period.
Cumulus has developed across the northern and eastern forecast
areas, with KBJI and KTVF going broken in the 3000-3500 ft range.
Have scattered to broken cumulus in the lower VFR category through
this afternoon at all sites, but that should dissipate by
afternoon. Wind gusts to 20 kts at KGFK should also end around
sunset. Light winds and some scattered high cirrus for tonight and
into tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR



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