Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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464 FXUS63 KFGF 042058 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 358 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Large upper trough in place across south central Canada/Northern Plains, with the main upper low having pulled northeast away from the area earlier today toward Hudson Bay. However two other shortwave troughs continue to dig south and eastward through the forecast area today and another currently upstream across southern Saskatchewan. The one digging through ND/MN has been responsible for the cloud cover today and scattered showers. Much of the cloud cover now breaking up and becoming more cellular across the forecast area. This suggests much of it will dissipate into the evening/overnight hours. However there is a weak sfc reflection/low developing across central ND which could allow some lingering cloud cover in that region into the overnight hours and maybe a few isolated showers hanging on a bit longer as well associated with that secondary wave to the northwest. That wave however is expected to weaken and washout as it quickly moves east into early Sunday. This should allow for clearing skies with southerly winds and high pressure to build into the region for much of Sunday as upper ridging builds in aloft. A developing southwestern US upper trough will be the next weather-maker of note as we move ahead into the work week. Little has changed in the overall setup from previous runs with the negatively tilted trough setting up Monday and shortwave ejecting northward. Still anticipate the greater threat of severe potential to remain to the south of the forecast area, but continued monitoring with timing could push that potential further north. Southerly flow to increase ahead of that system and will send winds pushing toward advisory criteria with H85 flow in the 30-35kt range, and mixed layer winds in the 30-39kt range. Ensembles topped out in the 30 kts ranges as well, so will have to assess for advisory in the coming shifts. In general, another round of rain with the main wave lifting northward through the area Monday into Tuesday. The main upper level system then begins to shift with the upper level trough breaking down and shifting east. A piece breaks off to the southwest, with more northerly flow in place. Overall confidence in any precipitation chances and dry period decreases, with a generally cooler pattern expected for mid to late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Isolated to scattered showers across the northern/eastern sites this afternoon. CIGS in the MVFR range and expect to lift to low VFR through the afternoon before clearing this evening especially in the west/southern TAF sites. CIGS could hold a bit longer in the east/north into the evening. Winds to be northwest to north, then light and variable overnight shifting to the south for Sunday with mainly clear skies. Any showers to dissipate by early evening with sunset. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJB/JR AVIATION...MJB/JR