Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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558 FXUS63 KFGF 041758 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1258 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Continue to see isolated to scattered showers across the northern third of the forecast area. A few reports of pea to isolated dime size hail with the strongest cells in the far east/central MN near Beltrami/Hubbard Counties. Soundings indicate some weak instability aloft with tops just above the -10 to -20 layer suggesting that potential for small hail to continue into with the stronger cells through the afternoon hours. Radar tops have shown strongest cells developing to around 15-16kft. PREVIOUS UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Area of showers holding steady translating southeastward across northeast ND this morning, therefore increased pops in the northern RRV associated near and south of these showers through mid-day. Also increased cloud cover some through this morning in the north, with mostly cloudy conditions across the northern third. Still expect clouds to become more cellular in nature this afternoon with isolated to scattered shower development as the upper wave continued to move east through the region. With the thicker low clouds and showers this AM, did drop max temps a few degrees in the north/west for the day. Otherwise overall forecast remains on track. PREVIOUS UPDATE Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Some spots around Roseau and Thief River Falls showing some drops in visibility, but short lived as more stratus has been moving in and web cams do not show any widespread fog problems. Put in some patchy fog mention and adjusted cloud cover a bit, but otherwise a pretty quiet morning with only a few rain showers expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Shortwave trough rotating around the bottom of the Hudson Bay low through ND will swing further east into MN, bringing some scattered rain showers mostly to our northern counties today. Instability looks lower than yesterday so think our chances for pea hail and lightning are less. Upper ridging will briefly move into the region for tomorrow, bringing our break in the active pattern. Sunday should see increasing southeasterly winds as a surface low develops to our west, along with sunshine and temperatures climbing into the 60s. The ridge will be short lived as a strong negatively tilted trough starts to move into the Plains on Monday. The main upper low will be over eastern MT/western ND into Tuesday, but there is good agreement in the ensemble members in the lead shortwave ejecting out Monday night. While timing is less than ideal for severe convection over our CWA as there will be very little instability to work with as the main forcing comes out, CIPS analogs do show some isolated severe reports possible as far north as our southern counties in these type of patterns. Ensemble means have instability improving a little bit to around 500 J/kg by Tuesday afternoon, although deep layer bulk shear goes down. Confidence is not high enough to start messaging severe at this point, but could see some organized storms early next week, and we will definitely see more rainfall with the wet signal in the R and M climate continuing. Predictability goes downhill for the end of the week with models struggling with how to handle the exiting of the upper low off to the east. Most show some sort of split flow at least in the short term, with cool and wet pattern continuing. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Isolated to scattered showers across the northern/eastern sites this afternoon. CIGS in the MVFR range and expect to lift to low VFR through the afternoon before clearing this evening especially in the west/southern TAF sites. CIGS could hold a bit longer in the east/north into the evening. Winds to be northwest to north, then light and variable overnight shifting to the south for Sunday with mainly clear skies. Any showers to dissipate by early evening with sunset. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJB/JR DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...MJB/JR