738
FXUS63 KFGF 061145
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southeast winds today and tonight across eastern North
  Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota, with gusts up to
  50 mph at times.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the region through
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Showers are advecting northward into central North Dakota on the
nose of the 850mb jet, as expected, and winds are increasing.
Still expecting the area of showers/thunder to gradually work
east as the low pressure across the western Dakotas slowly
propagates north and east advancing the strong low level
moisture transport into our region. Predictability and scenarios
discussed within the 3am discussion still valid.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough across the Rockies
slowly propagating east. Ensemble guidance in good agreement
with an upper low developing across western North Dakota over
the next couple days, and then mid to late week propagating
south and then east, with ridging building into the region while
that takes place. There is some uncertainty with how the upper
low will eventually eject eastward, but these differences do
not bring many different scenarios for our region. For Friday
and beyond confidence is very low, although temperatures will be
around normal values.

...Strong winds today and tonight...

For the southwestern two-thirds of the CWA, surface pressure
gradient increases by this afternoon along with winds aloft.
Model soundings indicate mixing up to around 900mb, with winds
near 40 knots at the top of the mixed layer - supportive of wind
advisory criteria (30 mph sustained with gusts over 45 mph).
There is a very low probability scenario of gusts up to 60 mph
that exists given winds near 850mb around 50-55 knots, which
would happen if mixing is deeper than anticipated. For this to
happen surface temperatures would need to be mid to upper 70s.

...Showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday...

Strong 850mb jet will bring moisture and weak instability
northward along with associated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight, with the band of activity slowly
propagating northward overnight.

This afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon instability
across southeast North Dakota, a couple stronger elevated storms
may exist given stronger deep layer shear.

Tuesday early afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon
instability across a narrow band from Bemidji to the northwest.
Deep layer shear will be very strong (near 50 knots) when CAM
solutions indicate storms, and if instability is strong enough a
few stronger storms would exist.

Not expecting a severe weather outbreak or anything like that,
but would not be surprised if we get a marginal severe
thunderstorm report or two.

Rainfall will be more hit and miss with this system - generally
0.25 to 0.50 inches, with isolated amounts up to an inch or two.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Main aviation concern today will be the gusty winds. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to gradually move into the region overnight,
along with showers. Thunder is possible overnight, but chances
too low at this time to include in TAF. Low level wind shear
may also be a concern, and thinking confidence in this hazard
one way or another will increase by next TAF issuance.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ001>004-007-027-029>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TG